Tag:Siena
Posted on: March 6, 2009 3:45 pm
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Conference Tournament Previews: MAAC

I am going to preview every single conference tournament one by one. Instead of what I initially started I am going to do them all on separate blog entries because I feel like this will give everyone a chance to discuss these conference tournaments. It will give them a home where everyone can join in and post their thoughts. Please comment.

First Round: March 6th
#8 Loyola vs. #9 Canisius
#7 Iona vs. #10 Marist

Quarterfinals: March 7
#8/9 vs. #1 Siena
#4 Manhattan vs. #5 Fairfield
#3 Rider vs. #6 St. Peters
#7/10 vs. #2 Niagara

Semifinals: March 8

Championship: March 9

 

Prediction: Siena is the overwhelming favorite to win the MAAC. If the Saints fail to do so then they will likely be playing in the NIT, which is unfortunate for a team that is clearly one of the nation's best mid majors. Niagara has a win over Siena and a pretty good team, so don't be surprised of Niagara pulls a MAAC Championship game stunner. If you're a betting man put your money on Siena. They know how important this tournament is.

 

 

Category: NCAAB
Posted on: February 10, 2009 6:11 pm
Edited on: February 10, 2009 6:13 pm
 

How weak is this year's mid major class?

Doug Gottlieb and Andy Katz just referred to this year's mid major class as one of the weakest ever. I tend to agree. Right now there aren't many mid majors that are fighting for at large bids. Let's check out the ones that are. For this exercise Gonzaga, Memphis, and Xavier are not considered mid majors.

Utah State (23-1, 11-0): I tend to think its ridiculous at how little attention a 23-1 basketball program like Utah State is getting, although I understand why. The Aggies have played the 196th toughest schedule and it's killing any respect that might have earned at this point. At Large Bid Chances: 20%

BYU (17-5, 5-3): The Cougars were playing a lot better when their incredible 50 game home winning streak was still intact. Right now BYU has lost three of six games and is quickly fading in the Mountain West standings.If BYU wants to get into the Big Dance they need to start separating themselves from the rest of the Mountain West bubble teams. At Large Bid Chances: 30%

UNLV (17-6, 5-4): The Rebels have been the most disapointing mid major team this season. A NCAA Tournament bid is still not out of the question but it's going to be a lot harder than it first appeared. Out of conference wins over Arizona and Louisville look great right now, but bad losses to TCU, Colorado State, and New Mexico are killers. At Large Chances: 35%

San Diego State (17-5, 7-2): The Aztecs are one of the most surprising teams in the country right now. Don't get me wrong though, it's not like San Diego State wasn't expected to compete for a NCAA Tournament berth. I just didn't see them ever holding a two game leading over both BYU & UNLV in the Mountain West standings at any point this season. At Large Chances: 35%

Utah Utes (16-7, 7-2): The Utes began their season by losing to Southwest Baptist. That led me to say that this was going to be a very disappointing year for Utah's basketball program. I was wrong. The Utes have a win over Gonzaga and are tied for the Mountain West lead. They also have the #11 RPI and the #13 SOS. That means they are going to the tournament unless something changes. At Large Chances: 60%

Siena Saints (19-6, 13-1): The loss to Rider really hurt Siena's RPI rating but not much since its still the 29th best. The Saints missed out on a lot of chances for big wins early in the year and going almost unscathed in the MAAC does not make up for that, but it does help their push for an at large bid. At Large Chances: 15%

Creighton Bluejays (19-6, 9-4): The Missouri Valley is still looking like a one bid conference but Creighton is trying to change that. The Blue Jays have won four straight games, including a big win over Northern Iowa on Sunday. The computer numbers need to keep improving. At Large Chances: 20%

Northern Iowa Panthers (17-7, 11-2): Northern Iowa won eleven straight games before finally losing to Creighton on Sunday. The loss damages their at large bid hopes but they are still certainly in the running. Right now if they lost in the Missouri Valley Tournament Finals they would be one of the last eight teams on the board. At Large Chances: 10%

Butler Bulldogs (21-2, 12-1): Butler is.....hmmmmm how do I say this.....IN. No doubt about it. Relax Bulldogs fans because you are going to be in the NCAA Tournament unless you lose a LOT of games the rest of the way. Butler is just playing for seeding at this point. At Large Chances: 85%

St. Marys Gaels (19-4, 6-3): The loss of Patty Mills is killing the Gaels. It's possible that even if he returns it will be too late for St. Marys to find their rytyhm and make a run to the NCAA Tournament. That's sad because to me it's very clear that the Gaels are one of the best 34 at large teams available. At Large Chances: 15%

Dayton Flyers (21-3, 7-2): Dayton's loss to Charlotte wasn't very good for their NCAA Tournament chances. Even with the loss winning 21 of 24 games is not too shabby and has them on the good side of the bubble for now. A win over Xavier (two chances left, with one tomorrow) would go a LONG ways towards a possible at large. At Large Chances: 25%

Davidson Wildcats (20-4, 13-1): The Wildcats have last season's Elite Eight run to fall back on, along with one of the best players in the country in Stephen Curry. A lot of people didn't expect them to lose a Socon game this season, but it was coming sooner or later. More than likely Davidson is going to the tournament. At Large Chances: 65%

Others on the Bubble (I'm being EXTREMELY generous in some cases): Northeastern (16-7), VCU (17-7), George Mason (16-7), New Mexico (15-9), North Dakota State (18-5), Portland (15-8), Buffalo (16-5), UAB (16-8), Tulsa (17-7), VMI (20-4), Duquense (15-7)

Posted on: February 1, 2009 11:12 pm
Edited on: February 1, 2009 11:28 pm
 

Mailbag: Discussing Mid Majors, Gtown, & More

I asked my readers to ask questions for a mailbag segment I wanted to do and I received some great responses. If you have a question for next week's mailbag either send me a PM or email me at dantheman4250@aol.com .

Hey Dan, I have a question for you to answer next time you do a blog on here or OSF. What mid-major teams do you think could get an at-large if they slip up in their conf. tourney? I was thinking of Davidson and Siena, maybe a MWC team too? Thanks.

-Huskyonspeed

I love this question Husky. First we have to determine the definition of a mid major. Most people don't say that Gonzaga, Memphis, and Xavier are mid majors, so for this exercise we will refrain them from being an answer to this question. If it matters all three are getting at large bids.

Butler and Davidson are getting into the field, even if they lose in their conference tournaments. The Wildcats would be closer to the cutline than the Bulldogs, but I think they'd both get in. St. Marys is another likely to get in, but it all depends on how they fare without Patty Mills. So far in they blew a halftime lead to Gonzaga without him and then lost to Portland without him.

Siena would be an interesting case with a RPI of 21 and a SOS of 39. If their RPI number stayed that high it would be almost impssoble for the Saints to be left out of the field. Dayton is in my field for now but their lack of marquee wins is going to hurt them. Utah State may be one of the more interesting bubble cases on Selection Sunday if they lose in the WAC Tournament. Right now their RPI (42) is impressive but their SOS would likely mean a NIT berth (202).

The Mountain West is considered a mid major league, although it has proven itself pretty good on both the football and basketball courts. It looks like at least two of five teams are going to get in; TCU, San Diego State, Utah, BYU, and UNLV. Right now Utah and UNLV lead the way. Chances are the regular season champion will be relatively safe going into the MWC Tournament.

The CAA also presents an interesting case. Northeastern, VCU, and George Mason are all in the 'discussion' for an large berth but I don't feel like any would be in without winning the CAA Tournament unless a LOT of chaos goes on before the final week of the season.

To clear up my answer I think Butler & Davidson are going to get in, even if it means stealing an at large berth. The same goes for Siena if their RPI stays like it is. The Mountain West is probably going to get two or three bids, and the CAA will probably get one unless something crazy takes place.

Hey dan where do you think Georgetown is gona end up in the tournament? As in what seed? They've played good at times and have beat high caliber teams, but have lost to them too. Anywhere from 5-7 maybe? And what about Arkansas? Are they in?

-Gtucker

Another great question. In my bracketology I have Georgetown out right now due to their 3-6 Big East record. I don't think that's going to last very long though. Being realistic at this point I don't see the Hoyas getting higher than a 6 seed in the Big Dance. If I had to guess right now (assuming they do indeed get in) I'd say they get in a scary 8-9 game. I'm sure the last thing a #1 seed wants to do is see Georgetown looking at them in round two, a team as talented as any in the entire country.

Before we can really discuss the Hoyas and the words 'NCAA Tournament' in the same sentence they have to prove they deserve to be in. Right now they don't.

Arkansas is done. They are 1-4 in SEC play and struggling. Their two wins over Texas & Oklahoma were nice, but they appear only to be a sign of the future in Fayetteville and not the present. I'm sure its sad for Razorbacks fans that weren't expecting much, and then raised their expectations after the two big wins. The SEC will be lucky to get five teams in, but without a Georgia-esque run for the SEC Tournament title Arkansas will be in the NIT or CBI.

Do you think that they still have a decent shot to get a #4 seed? They are probably going to run through the WCC now, with Mills hurt. Portland may be a contender, but I am not sure yet. I guess I wait on that for Thursday. Your thoughts on Zaga getting a 3-5 seed? And is it realistic?

-Gonzagafan62

Another great question. First off gonzagafan makes an excellent point. I mean no disrepect to the Zags at all when I say this, but I'm not sure Gonzaga would be the top team in the WCC without Patty Mills injury the other night. Gonzaga was down (but certainly not out) against the Gaels before Mills left the game.

But to the dismay of St. Marys fans the injury did take place and Gonzaga did win the game, proving once again they are the beasts of the WCC. Now onto the seeding scenarios for Gonzaga.......

If the Zags win out and win the WCC Tournament they can probably still get a 3 seed. A 2 isn't completely out of the picture but it would depend more on the other top teams faltering and nothing Gonzaga could control. Winning out would put Gonzaga on the top 4 seed lines for sure (at least that's the way the tournament appears to be shaping at this moment). When all is said and done I think Gonzaga ends up in the 3-7 range. Right now I have them as a 5 seed, and that should only improve from here on out.

This is a good potential sleeper team for the Final Four.

How many games do you think Wisconsin can lose and get into the NCAA's with their great rpi and sos?

-BadgerBoy1183

I actaully answered this one somewhat yesterday. I played out the Badgers season midday yesterday and had them finishing 18-12 with a 9-9 conference record. Is that good enough to get in? Honestly I'm not sure. Their computer numbers are going to help them a lot but a lot also depends on how the other bubble teams from the Big Ten and from around the rest of the country fare.

I cannot narrow it down to a specific number realistically but I can say this. Anything below .500 in the Big Ten probably isn't going to get it done, no matter how good your computer numbers are. Still a 37 RPI and a 3rd ranked SOS will get you a long way, even without a gaudy record overall.

 


Earlier today I made a post regarding Penn State's NCAA Tournament chances. Right now I think the Nittany Lions would be in, but I created a thread to ask you guys what you thought. Early on the lead answer to the question is that 'Yes, the Nittany Lions should be in the field', but I'd like everyone to keep voting. If you haven't voted or if you'd just like to review the poll here's the link .

-Daniel Evans
OnlineSportsFanatic.com

 
 
 
 
The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com