Tag:Bubble Watch
Posted on: March 3, 2009 11:58 pm
Edited on: March 4, 2009 11:19 am
 

Bubble Watch: After Tuesday's Games

The latest night of bubble watching has cleared up the picture a little bit more.

At this point Georgetown needs a miracle run after another loss in Big East play, leaving them at 6-11 overall. Maryland blew a great opportunity to knock off Wake Forest. And Cincinnati.....what happened? The Bearcats lose their first really bad game of the year to South Florida. I don't get how a team can play un-motivated in the closing stretch when they know every game counts as much as it does. I just don't get it, at all.

And last but not least, Oklahoma State is in right now. The Cowboys are playing their best basketball of the year and they have a chance to seemingly sew up a bid against Oklahoma in their next game. How about that?

I'm sure the one question everyone wants to know the answer to is which bubble team listed below is in best shape to grab an at large bid. Right now it would be California, followed by Boston College, Wisconsin, and Tennessee. All four of those teams are pretty close being locks, followed by everyone else in one jumbled up mess (although Okie State has snuck into the top five quickly).

At Large Spots: 34
Locks: 28
Locks (minus teams projected to win conference tournament): 28-7=21
At Large Spots Remaining: 34-21=13

My math shows that I am projecting that 13 at large spots remain .

I have 38 teams listed on the bubble below to fight for those spots. If your team isn't on the list below they probably need to win their conference tournament to get into the NCAA Tournament, but it is possible that a few teams can still win their way onto the bubble.

Here's today's bubble watch:

ACC

Locks (5):



Boston College (20-9, 8-6): The Eagles have wins over Duke, Wake Forest, and North Carolina this season so it's going to be hard for the selection committee to leave Boston College out of the Big Dance. The last two are very winnable so a 10- 6 finish in conference play is very likely.

Remaning Schedule: N. C. State, Georgia Tech
Nice Wins: UAB, Duke, Florida State, North Carolina, Maryland, Virginia Tech
Bad Losses: St. Louis, Harvard

Virginia Tech (17-11, 7-7): The Hokies have wins over Clemson & Wake Forest, but they haven't helped themselves lately outside of their road win over the Tigers. On Saturday the loss to Duke at home was costly because the Hokies had a chance to really solidify their resume.

Remaning Schedule: North Carolina, Florida State
Nice Wins: Boston College, Wake Forest, Clemson
Bad Losses: Georgia, Seton Hall

Maryland (18-11, 7-8): The Terps win over North Carolina was shocking, mainly because they had been blown out by good competition in most meetings this year. Now it's time to get serious though. Losing to Wake Forest wasn't terrible but it was disappointing after the Terps led for a good deal of the second half. The Virginia game is a must have.

Remaning Schedule: Virginia
Nice Wins: Michigan State, Michigan, North Carolina, Miami (FL)
Bad Losses: Morgan State

Miami FL (17-10, 6-8): The Hurricanes have played a lot of good teams this season, including Connecticut and Kentucky out of conference. The key is that their computer numbers are fantastic and they have two very winnable games remaining on their schedule against Georgia Tech & NC State.

Remaning Schedule: Georgia Tech, N. C. State
Nice Wins: Kentucky, Boston College, Maryland, Wake Forest, Boston College
Bad Losses: N. C. State

Big East

Locks (7):



Providence (18-11, 10-7): The Friars were really a forgotten bubble team before their huge win over #1 Pittsburgh on Wednesday night. Now the entire college basketball world is in shock and Providence is the talk of the bubble world. Now sitting at ten Big East wins a victory over Villanova would be huge for their at large chances.

Remaining Schedule:   Villanova
Nice Wins:
Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Cincinnati (2),
Bad Losses:
Northeastern, Baylor

Cincinnati (18-12, 8-9): What a terrible time to finally get your first "bad loss". The Bearcats fell to South Florida on Tuesday, meaning they probably need at least three wins the rest of the way to have a major argument for an at large berth on Selection Sunday. First they must take care of Seton Hall instead of letting another game slip away.

Remaning Schedule: Seton Hall
Nice Wins: UAB, UNLV, West Virginia, Georgetown
Bad Losses: South Florida

Notre Dame (16-13, 7-10): Things are starting to look bleak again for the Fighting Irish. Before losses to Connecticut & Villanova the Fighting Irish had revived their season with wins over Providence and Louisville. Now they are back in need of a deep Big East Tournament run to make the Big Dance.

Remaning Schedule:   St. Johns
Nice Wins: Providence, Louisville, Georgetown, Texas
Bad Losses: St. Johns

Georgetown (15-13, 6-11): Georgetown is one of the weirdest teams in recent memory. They have wins over Memphis, Villanova, Syracuse, and Connecticut (all consensus Sweet 16 contenders at the very least) but they have losses to Seton Hall & St. Johns. Go figure. They need to beat DePaul and make a run towards the Big East Championship.

Remaining Schedule: DePaul
Nice Wins: Syracuse, Providence, Maryland, Memphis, Villanova, Connecticut
Bad Losses: Seton Hall, St. Johns


Big Ten:

Locks (3):

 

Ohio State (19-9, 9-8): The Buckeyes win over Iowa ended their recent streak of losses (4 of 5) although it was not even close to an impressive victory. They close with pesky Northwestern, which has already knocked off Ohio State once. Winning that one would probably get them in good enough shape to get in.

Remaning Schedule: Northwestern
Nice Wins: Penn State, Michigan, Purdue, Miami (FL), Notre Dame, Butler
Bad Losses: Northwestern

Penn State (20-9, 9-7); Whew! That's the sound of Penn State fans after their comeback to knock off Big Ten bottom dwellar Indiana. Another win over Illinois (hopefully not as ugly as last time) and a win over Iowa would give the Nittany Lions a total of 11 Big Ten wins. That certainly may do it.

Remaining Schedule: Illinois, Iowa
Nice Wins: Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan
Bad Losses: None (did lose to Rhode Island)

Wisconsin (18-10, 9-7): Wisconsin's resume reminds me a lot of Notre Dame's resume (except they lost six straight games compared to seven), but the Badgers have much better computer numbers. They have now won six of seven games following a six game losing streak. The win over Michigan more or less locks them up barring a huge collapse.

Remaning Schedule: Minnesota, Indiana
Nice Wins: Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan (2), Virginia Tech
Bad Losses: Iowa

Minnesota (20-8, 8-8): The Golden Gophers appeared destined for an at large bid early in the season after a 18-3 start to the season that included a win over Louisville. Since then the Gophers are 2-5 with losses to Penn State & Michigan included.  The last two aren't easy but winning at least one is very necessary.

Remaining Schedule: Wisconsin, Michigan
Nice Wins: Louisville, Wisconsin, Penn State, Ohio State
Bad Losses: Northwestern

Michigan (18-12, 8-9): The Wolverines are up and down as evident by their wins over Duke & UCLA and losses to Maryland & Iowa. Still, how many teams have ever been left out of the NCAA Tournament when having wins over Duke and UCLA in the same season? I'm guessing it's a short list. The loss to Wisconsin makes the game with Minnesota crucial.

Remaining Schedule: Minnesota
Nice Wins: Purdue, Minnesota, Duke, UCLA, Illinois
Bad Losses: Iowa

 

Big 12

Locks (4):

 

Kansas State (20-10, 8-7): The Wildcats loss to Oklahoma State all but eliminates them from bubble contention without a gigantic run through the Big 12 Touranment. If they win against lowly Colorado then the door is still open (barely) for an at large bid.

Remaining Schedule: Colorado
Nice Wins: Texas
Bad Losses: Baylor, Nebraska, Oregon, Iowa

Oklahoma State (20-9, 9-6): How about Oklahoma State? The Cowboys have wins over both Texas & Oklahoma State in back to back games, and guess who they get next? Oklahoma. A win over the Sooners would pretty much wrap up an at large bid for the Cowboys, because I don't see any way the committee could leave them out. They are sitting pretty right now.

Remaning Schedule : Kansas State, Oklahoma
Nice Wins: Siena, Nebraska, Texas A&M, Texas
Bad Losses: Texas A&M, Baylor

Texas A&M (21-8, 7-7): The Aggies seem like the forgotten team that just won't fade away. Texas A&M can't afford a slipup against Colorado before playing Big 12 monster Missouri. Winning out would make the committee think twice about leaving the Aggies out, especially with a split against Oklahoma State and a win over SEC champion LSU.

Remaining Schedule : Colorado, Missouri
Nice Wins: Nebraska, Oklahoma State, LSU
Bad Losses: Baylor, Kansas State

 

Pac 10

Locks (3):

 

California (21-8, 10-6): The Golden Bears missed a huge chance to lock up a bid on Saturday night against UCLA. The Bears have Arizona and Arizona State left on the schedule. A win in either game would probably be enough to lock up an at large bid. Even if Cal loses out it's going to be tough to deny them a bid with 10 conference wins.

Remaining Schedule : Arizona, Arizona State
Nice Wins: Washington (twice), Arizona, Utah, UNLV
Bad Losses: Oregon State (2)

Arizona (18-11, 8-8): Arizona has lost three straight games to Arizona State, Washington State, and Washington. A win over the Huskies on Saturday would've immensely improved their profile. Instead Arizona has to look at the plus side, which is two games remaining against mediocre conference foes. Wins over Gonzaga, Kansas, UCLA, and Washington are all nice.

Remaining Schedule : California, Stanford
Nice Wins: UCLA, Washington, Gonzaga, San Diego State, Kansas
Bad Losses: Washington State (did lose to USC though)

USC (16-12, 7-9): USC's inconsistency has left the Trojans needing a deep run in the Pac Ten Tournament. Even winning their last two games will not be enough after losing to Stanford, which is inexcusable at this point in the season. Two wins and at least two more in the Pac Ten Tournament (maybe even reaching the Pac Ten finals) is needed.

Remaining Schedule : Oregon, Oregon State
Nice Wins: California, Arizona, Arizona State
Bad Losses: Oregon State, Seton Hall

 

SEC

Locks (1):

 

Tennessee (18-10, 9-5): A lot of people are calling the Volunteers locks, but things are not that simple in Knoxville. Games against Florida and South Carolina won't be easy with at large bids on the line. It's very possible that 9 SEC wins could be enough as long as they don't lose early in the SEC Tournament.

Remaining Schedule : Florida, South Carolina, Alabama
Nice Wins: Siena, Georgetown, South Carolina, Florida (2)
Bad Losses: Auburn, Mississippi (also lost to Kentucky twice)

South Carolina (20-7, 9-5): I spent last night explaining how games against Vanderbilt and Georgia left South Carolina staring at 11 SEC wins at the minimum. Nobody expected Vanderbilt to whoop them, especially after South Carolina's murdered Kentucky on Wednesday. The profile is iffy now, even with wins over Florida and a sweep of Kentucky.

Remaining Schedule : Tennessee, Georgia
Nice Wins: Florida, Kentucky (2)
Bad Losses: Mississippi State, College of Charleston, Vanderbilt

Florida (21-8, 8-6): The Gators have feasted on a soft out of conference schedule and aside from beating Washington & South Carolina they have struggled to beat good teams. Florida missed chances to knock off Syracuse, Kentucky, and LSU. The Gators loss to Tennessee makes their chances of an at large look bleaker than ever.

Remaining Schedule : Mississippi State, Kentucky
Nice Wins: Washington, South Carolina
Bad Losses: Georgia (also lost to South Carolina, Kentucky, and Tennessee twice)

Kentucky (19-10, 8-6): Well, well, well what do we have here? I really can't figure out if this is a team that wants to go to the Big Dance or a team that is okay being the first UK team since 1991 to miss the NCAA Tournament altogether. Back to back losses to South Carolina & LSU have left the Wildcats in big need of two wins to close their season.

Remaining Schedule: LSU, Georgia, Florida
Nice Wins: Tennessee (2), Florida
Bad Losses: Mississippi State, Mississippi (lost both games to South Carolina)

 

Mountain West

Locks (1):

BYU (22-6, 10-4): Another bubble team apparently wants to go dancing, and that team is BYU. The Cougars knocked off the only Mountain West team that was locked into the field, Utah on Saturday. Wyoming isn't an easy win but a win there paired with a win over Air Force would give BYU a 12-4 MWC record going into the MWC Tournament.

Remain ing Schedule: Wyoming, Air Force
Nice Wins: San Diego State, Utah
Bad Losses: None

New Mexico (20-10, 11-4):  Wow. Go figure. I really don't know what to make of the Lobos anymore. They have wins over the MWC's other four beat teams (San Diego State, Utah, BYU, and UNLV) but they also have losses to UCF, Texas Tech, and UTEP. A win over Wyoming and a couple of wins in the MWC Tournament should get them in. Incredible.

Remaining Schedule: Wyoming
Nice Wins: BYU, UNLV, Utah, San Diego State
Bad Losses: UCF, Texas Tech, UTEP

San Diego State (19-8, 9-5): Knocking off TCU in overtime was really important for the Aztecs at large hopes. A win over Colorado State would set up a huge potential bubble elimination game between San Diego State & UNLV just a few nights before the start of the Mountain West Tournament.

Remaining Schedule : Colorado State, UNLV
Nice Wins: UNLV, Utah
Bad Losses: Wyoming

UNLV (20-8, 8-6): The Rebels have been one of the most disappointing teams in the country thsi year, but all is not lost. With four teams in the Mountain West with a chance to get to 10 conference wins (the maximum for UNLV) the Rebels probably need to win their remaning two and then at least one in the MWC Tournament to feel safe.

Remaining Schedule : Air Force, San Diego State
Nice Wins: Louisville, Utah, BYU, New Mexico
Bad Losses: Colorado State, Wyoming, TCU

 

Others:

Locks (4):

 

Dayton (24-5, 10-4):  The Flyers were in great shape before dropping back to back games to Saint Louis and Rhode Island. On Saturday their win over Temple got them back on track. If the Flyers can beat Xavier again this week then I don't see any way they get left out of the big dance.

Remaining Schedule : Xavier, Duquense
Nice Wins: Xavier, Marquette, Temple
Bad Losses: St. Louis, Charlotte, Massachusetts

Rhode Island (21-8, 10-4): The Rams just keep staying alive. Since starting the season 12-7 Rhode Island has won 9 of 10 games. The next two are very winnable (Duquense, Massachsetts) before the Atlantic Ten tournament. If they win their next two games they will avoid Xavier until the finals.

Remaining Schedule : Duquense, Massachusetts
Nice Wins: Dayton, Temple, Penn State
Bad Losses: Saint Josephs

Temple (17-11, 9-5): The Owls are probably going to need to win the Atlantic Ten Tournament to get into the Big Dance. The wins over Tennessee & Penn State look good on the resume but back to back losses to La Salle & Dayton have really affected their chances of getting an at large.

Remaining Schedule : Saint Josephs, George Washington
Nice Wins: Tennessee, Penn State
Bad Losses: Buffalo, Miami (OH), La Salle

UAB (20-9, 10-4): The Blazers really need to knock off Memphis to have any chance to get into the field, but that fell apart. They do have one more chance to knock off the Tigers, but it will likely be in the Conference USA Tournament final unless they fall to the #4 seed in the standings. In that scenario they'd meet the Tigers in the semifinals.

Remaining Schedule : East Carolina, UTEP, Marshall
Nice Wins: Arizona
Bad Losses: Tulsa, Houston

Siena (23-7, 16-2):  For all intensive purposes losing to Niagara on Friday night pretty much ruined the Saints at large hopes, along with losing to Rider earlier this week. Siena should plan on winning the MAAC Tournament to claim a NCAA Tournament bid, unless a lot of other bubble teams start to fall apart.

Remaining Schedule : MAAC Tournament
Nice Wins: Northern Iowa
Bad Losses: Rider, Niagara

Creighton (25-6, 14-4): The Blue Jays are making a huge run towards the Big Dance. After a 5-4 start in conference play Creighton has now taken the lead in the Missouri Valley by winning ten straight games. Beating George Mason in the bracketbuster game was pretty much the capping of a nice profile. If Creighton loses in the MVC final they have a compelling case for an at large.

Remaining Schedule : Illinois State
Nice Wins: George Mason, Northern Iowa, Dayton
Bad Losses: Illinois State, Drake

Davidson (25-6, 18-2): The Wildcats knew their game with Butler was probably for their at large hope lives, and they lost. Grabbing an at large bid would mean the Wildcats had lost three Socon games this year, which is not really an achievement after the way they've run through the conference in past years. Davidson better win the Socon.

Remaining Schedule : Socon Tournament
Nice Wins: West Virginia
Bad Losses: The Citadel, College of Charleston

St. Marys (23-5, 9-4): The Gaels case is going to be one of the more interesting on Selection Sunday. Will the committee cut them some slack because they lost Patty Mills in a game against Gonzaga where they were in control at halftime? Or will three losses (including one in the WCC Tourney) to the Zags be the doom of them?

Remaining Schedule : Loyola-Marymount
Nice Wins: Utah State, Portland
Bad Losses: Santa Clara, UTEP

Utah State (26-4, 13-2): The Aggies loss to St. Marys in the bracketbusters really killed their at large mojo, and following it up with a loss to Nevada didn't really help the situation any. I will leave Utah State on the list due to their decent RPI and guady record, but unless they lose an incredibly competitive WAC final I think anything short of an auto won't be enough.

Remaining Schedule: Nevada, San Jose State
Nice Wins: Utah
Bad Losses:
Boise State

 

 

 

Category: NCAAB
Tags: Bubble Watch
 
Posted on: March 2, 2009 11:04 pm
Edited on: March 3, 2009 7:59 am
 

Bubble Watch: After Monday's Games

There hasn't been a lot of change since my last bubble watch but it doesn't mean it isn't time for a new one. My new bracketology is out, breaking down which bubble teams I think are in and out as of right now.

I have moved both Syracuse & West Virginia into lock status after both won their ninth Big East game on Sunday. I don't see how either can be left out of the NCAA Tournament field, meaning they are locks.

I'm sure the one question everyone wants to know the answer to is which bubble team listed below is in best shape to grab an at large bid. Right now it would be California, followed by Boston College, Wisconsin, and Tennessee. All four of those teams are pretty close being locks, followed by everyone else in one jumbled up mess.

At Large Spots: 34
Locks: 28
Locks (minus teams projected to win conference tournament): 28-7=21
At Large Spots Remaining: 34-21=13

My math shows that I am projecting that 13 at large spots remain .

I have 38 teams listed on the bubble below to fight for those spots. If your team isn't on the list below they probably need to win their conference tournament to get into the NCAA Tournament, but it is possible that a few teams can still win their way onto the bubble.

Here's today's bubble watch:

ACC

Locks (5):



Boston College (20-9, 8-6): The Eagles have wins over Duke, Wake Forest, and North Carolina this season so it's going to be hard for the selection committee to leave Boston College out of the Big Dance. The last two are very winnable so a 10- 6 finish in conference play is very likely.

Remaning Schedule: N. C. State, Georgia Tech
Nice Wins: UAB, Duke, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Maryland, Virginia Tech
Bad Losses: St. Louis, Harvard

Virginia Tech (17-11, 7-7): The Hokies have wins over Clemson & Wake Forest, but they haven't helped themselves lately outside of their road win over the Tigers. On Saturday the loss to Duke at home was costly because the Hokies had a chance to really solidify their resume.

Remaning Schedule: North Carolina, Florida State
Nice Wins: Boston College, Wake Forest, Clemson
Bad Losses: Georgia, Seton Hall

Maryland (18-10, 7-7): The Terps win over North Carolina was shocking, mainly because they had been blown out by good competition in most meetings this year. The victory tremendously helped Maryland because it brought wins they had early in the year over both Michigan and Michigan State back into the fray.

Remaning Schedule: Wake Forest, Virginia
Nice Wins: Michigan State, Michigan, North Carolina, Miami (FL)
Bad Losses: Morgan State

Miami FL (17-10, 6-8): The Hurricanes have played a lot of good teams this season, including Connecticut and Kentucky out of conference. The key is that their computer numbers are fantastic and they have two very winnable games remaining on their schedule against Georgia Tech & NC State.

Remaning Schedule: Georgia Tech, N. C. State
Nice Wins: Kentucky, Boston College, Maryland, Wake Forest, Boston College
Bad Losses: N. C. State

Big East

Locks (7):



Providence (18-11, 10-7): The Friars were really a forgotten bubble team before their huge win over #1 Pittsburgh on Wednesday night. Now the entire college basketball world is in shock and Providence is the talk of the bubble world. Now sitting at ten Big East wins a victory over Villanova would be huge for their at large chances.

Remaining Schedule:   Villanova
Nice Wins:
Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Cincinnati (2),
Bad Losses:
Northeastern, Baylor

Cincinnati (18-11, 8-8): The Bearcats loss to Syracuse really puts them in a very uneasy situation. Sure wins over South Florida & Seton Hall are very likely, but it will still leave the Bearcats without a large victory. Ten Big East wins is enough to keep them in the conversation, but they are going to need more than that.

Remaning Schedule: Syracuse, South Florida, Seton Hall
Nice Wins: UAB, UNLV, West Virginia, Georgetown
Bad Losses: None

Notre Dame (16-13, 7-10): Things are starting to look bleak again for the Fighting Irish. Before losses to Connecticut & Villanova the Fighting Irish had revived their season with wins over Providence and Louisville. Now they are back in need of a deep Big East Tournament run to make the Big Dance.

Remaning Schedule:   St. Johns
Nice Wins: Providence, Louisville, Georgetown, Texas
Bad Losses: St. Johns

Georgetown (15-12, 6-10): How many lives the do the Hoyas have? Every time they seem gone for dead they find a way to stay alive. On Saturday they knocked off Villanova to keep their chances of a miracle finish alive. Still wins over St. Johns and DePaul are absolutely necessary before a decent run in the Big East Tournament. The Hoyas have the #1 SOS.

Remaining Schedule: Villanova, St. Johns, DePaul
Nice Wins: Syracuse, Providence, Maryland, Memphis, Villanova, Connecticut
Bad Losses: Seton Hall


Big Ten:

Locks (3):

 

Ohio State (18-9, 8-8): Ohio State has now lost four of five games to fall squarely back on the NCAA Tournament bubble. Winning out would give Ohio State a 10-8 Big Ten finish, which will probably be enough with the list of good wins they have. The problem is one of those games comes against pesky Northwestern, a team OSU has already lost to once.

Remaning Schedule: Iowa, Northwestern
Nice Wins: Penn State, Michigan, Purdue, Miami (FL), Notre Dame, Butler
Bad Losses: Northwestern

Penn State (20-9, 9-7); Whew! That's the sound of Penn State fans after their comeback to knock off Big Ten bottom dwellar Indiana. Another win over Illinois (hopefully not as ugly as last time) and a win over Iowa would give the Nittany Lions a total of 11 Big Ten wins. That certainly may do it.

Remaining Schedule: Illinois, Iowa
Nice Wins: Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan
Bad Losses: None (did lose to Rhode Island)

Wisconsin (18-10, 9-7): Wisconsin's resume reminds me a lot of Notre Dame's resume (except they lost six straight games compared to seven), but the Badgers have much better computer numbers. They have now won six of seven games following a six game losing streak. The win over Michigan more or less locks them up barring a huge collapse.

Remaning Schedule: Minnesota, Indiana
Nice Wins: Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan (2), Virginia Tech
Bad Losses: Iowa

Minnesota (20-8, 8-8): The Golden Gophers appeared destined for an at large bid early in the season after a 18-3 start to the season that included a win over Louisville. Since then the Gophers are 2-5 with losses to Penn State & Michigan included.  The last two aren't easy but winning at least one is very necessary.

Remaining Schedule: Wisconsin, Michigan
Nice Wins: Louisville, Wisconsin, Penn State, Ohio State
Bad Losses: Northwestern

Michigan (18-12, 8-9): The Wolverines are up and down as evident by their wins over Duke & UCLA and losses to Maryland & Iowa. Still, how many teams have ever been left out of the NCAA Tournament when having wins over Duke and UCLA in the same season? I'm guessing it's a short list. The loss to Wisconsin makes the game with Minnesota crucial.

Remaining Schedule: Minnesota
Nice Wins: Purdue, Minnesota, Duke, UCLA, Illinois
Bad Losses: Iowa

 

Big 12

Locks (4):

 

Kansas State (20-9, 8-6): The Wildcats are quietly very alive in the bubble picture. Kansas State knocked off Nebraska on Saturday and moved farther towards an at large bid. The next two games against Oklahoma State and Colorado are going to be must wins for Kansas State to get an at large. The downside is they defeated nobody of importance outside of conference.

Remaining Schedule: Oklahoma State, Colorado
Nice Wins: Texas
Bad Losses: Baylor, Nebraska, Oregon, Iowa

Oklahoma State (19-9, 8-6): Finally the Cowboys won an eye opening game to back up their fantastic computer numbers. I'm not sure if Texas knows what hit them. The Cowboys have a huge bubble game against Kansas State next week before finishing with a chance to add a huge win to their resume versus rival Oklahoma.

Remaning Schedule : Kansas State, Oklahoma
Nice Wins: Siena, Nebraska, Texas A&M
Bad Losses: Texas A&M, Baylor

Texas A&M (21-8, 7-7): The Aggies seem like the forgotten team that just won't fade away. Texas A&M can't afford a slipup against Colorado before playing Big 12 monster Missouri. Winning out would make the committee think twice about leaving the Aggies out, especially with a split against Oklahoma State and a win over SEC champion LSU.

Remaining Schedule : Colorado, Missouri
Nice Wins: Nebraska, Oklahoma State, LSU
Bad Losses: Baylor, Kansas State

 

Pac 10

Locks (3):

 

California (21-8, 10-6): The Golden Bears missed a huge chance to lock up a bid on Saturday night against UCLA. The Bears have Arizona and Arizona State left on the schedule. A win in either game would probably be enough to lock up an at large bid. Even if Cal loses out it's going to be tough to deny them a bid with 10 conference wins.

Remaining Schedule : Arizona, Arizona State
Nice Wins: Washington (twice), Arizona, Utah, UNLV
Bad Losses: Oregon State (2)

Arizona (18-11, 8-8): Arizona has lost three straight games to Arizona State, Washington State, and Washington. A win over the Huskies on Saturday would've immensely improved their profile. Instead Arizona has to look at the plus side, which is two games remaining against mediocre conference foes. Wins over Gonzaga, Kansas, UCLA, and Washington are all nice.

Remaining Schedule : California, Stanford
Nice Wins: UCLA, Washington, Gonzaga, San Diego State, Kansas
Bad Losses: Washington State (did lose to USC though)

USC (16-12, 7-9): USC's inconsistency has left the Trojans needing a deep run in the Pac Ten Tournament. Even winning their last two games will not be enough after losing to Stanford, which is inexcusable at this point in the season. Two wins and at least two more in the Pac Ten Tournament (maybe even reaching the Pac Ten finals) is needed.

Remaining Schedule : Oregon, Oregon State
Nice Wins: California, Arizona, Arizona State
Bad Losses: Oregon State, Seton Hall

 

SEC

Locks (1):

 

Tennessee (18-10, 9-5): A lot of people are calling the Volunteers locks, but things are not that simple in Knoxville. Games against Florida and South Carolina won't be easy with at large bids on the line. It's very possible that 9 SEC wins could be enough as long as they don't lose early in the SEC Tournament.

Remaining Schedule : Florida, South Carolina, Alabama
Nice Wins: Siena, Georgetown, South Carolina, Florida (2)
Bad Losses: Auburn, Mississippi (also lost to Kentucky twice)

South Carolina (20-7, 9-5): I spent last night explaining how games against Vanderbilt and Georgia left South Carolina staring at 11 SEC wins at the minimum. Nobody expected Vanderbilt to whoop them, especially after South Carolina's murdered Kentucky on Wednesday. The profile is iffy now, even with wins over Florida and a sweep of Kentucky.

Remaining Schedule : Tennessee, Georgia
Nice Wins: Florida, Kentucky (2)
Bad Losses: Mississippi State, College of Charleston, Vanderbilt

Florida (21-8, 8-6): The Gators have feasted on a soft out of conference schedule and aside from beating Washington & South Carolina they have struggled to beat good teams. Florida missed chances to knock off Syracuse, Kentucky, and LSU. The Gators loss to Tennessee makes their chances of an at large look bleaker than ever.

Remaining Schedule : Mississippi State, Kentucky
Nice Wins: Washington, South Carolina
Bad Losses: Georgia (also lost to South Carolina, Kentucky, and Tennessee twice)

Kentucky (19-10, 8-6): Well, well, well what do we have here? I really can't figure out if this is a team that wants to go to the Big Dance or a team that is okay being the first UK team since 1991 to miss the NCAA Tournament altogether. Back to back losses to South Carolina & LSU have left the Wildcats in big need of two wins to close their season.

Remaining Schedule: LSU, Georgia, Florida
Nice Wins: Tennessee (2), Florida
Bad Losses: Mississippi State, Mississippi (lost both games to South Carolina)

 

Mountain West

Locks (1):

BYU (22-6, 10-4): Another bubble team apparently wants to go dancing, and that team is BYU. The Cougars knocked off the only Mountain West team that was locked into the field, Utah on Saturday. Wyoming isn't an easy win but a win there paired with a win over Air Force would give BYU a 12-4 MWC record going into the MWC Tournament.

Remain ing Schedule: Wyoming, Air Force
Nice Wins: San Diego State, Utah
Bad Losses: None

New Mexico (19-10, 10-4):  Somehow the Lobos keep getting forgotten in all of this bubble talk although they are in a tie for second place in the conference. New Mexico came from behind to knock off Colorado State in double overtime, setting up a huge game with Utah.

Remaining Schedule: Colorado State, Utah, Wyoming
Nice Wins: BYU, UNLV
Bad Losses: UCF, Texas Tech, UTEP

San Diego State (19-8, 9-5): Knocking off TCU in overtime was really important for the Aztecs at large hopes. A win over Colorado State would set up a huge potential bubble elimination game between San Diego State & UNLV just a few nights before the start of the Mountain West Tournament.

Remaining Schedule : Colorado State, UNLV
Nice Wins: UNLV, Utah
Bad Losses: Wyoming

UNLV (20-8, 8-6): The Rebels have been one of the most disappointing teams in the country thsi year, but all is not lost. With four teams in the Mountain West with a chance to get to 10 conference wins (the maximum for UNLV) the Rebels probably need to win their remaning two and then at least one in the MWC Tournament to feel safe.

Remaining Schedule : Air Force, San Diego State
Nice Wins: Louisville, Utah, BYU, New Mexico
Bad Losses: Colorado State, Wyoming, TCU

 

Others:

Locks (4):

 

Dayton (24-5, 10-4):  The Flyers were in great shape before dropping back to back games to Saint Louis and Rhode Island. On Saturday their win over Temple got them back on track. If the Flyers can beat Xavier again this week then I don't see any way they get left out of the big dance.

Remaining Schedule : Xavier, Duquense
Nice Wins: Xavier, Marquette, Temple
Bad Losses: St. Louis, Charlotte, Massachusetts

Rhode Island (21-8, 10-4): The Rams just keep staying alive. Since starting the season 12-7 Rhode Island has won 9 of 10 games. The next two are very winnable (Duquense, Massachsetts) before the Atlantic Ten tournament. If they win their next two games they will avoid Xavier until the finals.

Remaining Schedule : Duquense, Massachusetts
Nice Wins: Dayton, Temple, Penn State
Bad Losses: Saint Josephs

Temple (17-11, 9-5): The Owls are probably going to need to win the Atlantic Ten Tournament to get into the Big Dance. The wins over Tennessee & Penn State look good on the resume but back to back losses to La Salle & Dayton have really affected their chances of getting an at large.

Remaining Schedule : Saint Josephs, George Washington
Nice Wins: Tennessee, Penn State
Bad Losses: Buffalo, Miami (OH), La Salle

UAB (20-9, 10-4): The Blazers really need to knock off Memphis to have any chance to get into the field, but that fell apart. They do have one more chance to knock off the Tigers, but it will likely be in the Conference USA Tournament final unless they fall to the #4 seed in the standings. In that scenario they'd meet the Tigers in the semifinals.

Remaining Schedule : East Carolina, UTEP, Marshall
Nice Wins: Arizona
Bad Losses: Tulsa, Houston

Siena (23-7, 16-2):  For all intensive purposes losing to Niagara on Friday night pretty much ruined the Saints at large hopes, along with losing to Rider earlier this week. Siena should plan on winning the MAAC Tournament to claim a NCAA Tournament bid, unless a lot of other bubble teams start to fall apart.

Remaining Schedule : MAAC Tournament
Nice Wins: Northern Iowa
Bad Losses: Rider, Niagara

Creighton (25-6, 14-4): The Blue Jays are making a huge run towards the Big Dance. After a 5-4 start in conference play Creighton has now taken the lead in the Missouri Valley by winning ten straight games. Beating George Mason in the bracketbuster game was pretty much the capping of a nice profile. If Creighton loses in the MVC final they have a compelling case for an at large.

Remaining Schedule : Illinois State
Nice Wins: George Mason, Northern Iowa, Dayton
Bad Losses: Illinois State, Drake

Davidson (25-6, 18-2): The Wildcats knew their game with Butler was probably for their at large hope lives, and they lost. Grabbing an at large bid would mean the Wildcats had lost three Socon games this year, which is not really an achievement after the way they've run through the conference in past years. Davidson better win the Socon.

Remaining Schedule : Socon Tournament
Nice Wins: West Virginia
Bad Losses: The Citadel, College of Charleston

St. Marys (23-5, 9-4): The Gaels case is going to be one of the more interesting on Selection Sunday. Will the committee cut them some slack because they lost Patty Mills in a game against Gonzaga where they were in control at halftime? Or will three losses (including one in the WCC Tourney) to the Zags be the doom of them?

Remaining Schedule : Loyola-Marymount
Nice Wins: Utah State, Portland
Bad Losses: Santa Clara, UTEP

Utah State (26-4, 13-2): The Aggies loss to St. Marys in the bracketbusters really killed their at large mojo, and following it up with a loss to Nevada didn't really help the situation any. I will leave Utah State on the list due to their decent RPI and guady record, but unless they lose an incredibly competitive WAC final I think anything short of an auto won't be enough.

Remaining Schedule: Nevada, San Jose State
Nice Wins: Utah
Bad Losses:
Boise State

 

 

 

 

 

Category: NCAAB
Tags: Bubble Watch
 
Posted on: February 28, 2009 11:59 pm
Edited on: March 1, 2009 12:15 am
 

Bubble Watch: After Saturday's Games

There were a few big bubble winners on Saturday night and a few big bubble survivors. Survivors include Penn State, who trailed late to Big Ten bottom dweller Indiana before coming back to capture its ninth conference win.

A couple of bubble teams missed out on big chances to solidify at large berths. Virginia Tech missed a big chances to knock off Duke on its home floor, Arizona failed to knock off Washington the road, and Kentucky lost to LSU in Lexington to drop yet another SEC game. California also missed a very big opportunity to defeat UCLA at home with the world watching and College Gameday in apperance.

Florida State was the only team that moved into lock status after today's games. The Seminoles win over Clemson was enough to wrap up a NCAA Tournament profile. BYU landed a large win over Mountain West leading Utah, while New Mexico was able to survive a double overtime marathon against Colorado State. One other big winner on Saturday was Oklahoma State, who took advantage of an opportunity to knock off Texas in Stillwater. Georgetown stayed alive by knocking off Villanova in Philadelphia.

Bubble losers included Notre Dame, Arizona (as already mentioned), and Kentucky (also already mentioned). The Fighting Irish had a chance to knock off the soon to be #1 Connecticut Huskies but fell late in the game.

All of these games have helped make the bubble picture clearer in some places and murkier in others. Let's break it down mathematically.

At Large Spots: 34
Locks: 26
Locks (minus teams projected to win conference tournament): 26-7=19
At Large Spots Remaining: 34-19=15

My math shows that I am projecting that 15 at large spots remain .

I have 38 teams listed on the bubble below to fight for those spots. If your team isn't on the list below they probably need to win their conference tournament to get into the NCAA Tournament, but it is possible that a few teams can still win their way onto the bubble.

Here's today's bubble watch:

ACC

Locks (5):



Boston College (20-9, 8-6): The Eagles have wins over Duke, Wake Forest, and North Carolina this season so it's going to be hard for the selection committee to leave Boston College out of the Big Dance. The last two are very winnable so a 10- 6 finish in conference play is very likely.

Remaning Schedule: N. C. State, Georgia Tech
Nice Wins: UAB, Duke, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Maryland, Virginia Tech
Bad Losses: St. Louis, Harvard

Virginia Tech (17-11, 7-7): The Hokies have wins over Clemson & Wake Forest, but they haven't helped themselves lately outside of their road win over the Tigers. On Saturday the loss to Duke at home was costly because the Hokies had a chance to really solidify their resume.

Remaning Schedule: North Carolina, Florida State
Nice Wins: Boston College, Wake Forest, Clemson
Bad Losses: Georgia, Seton Hall

Maryland (17-10, 6-7): The Terps win over North Carolina was shocking, mainly because they had been blown out by good competition in most meetings this year. The victory tremendously helped Maryland because it brought wins they had early in the year over both Michigan and Michigan State back into the fray.

Remaning Schedule: N. C. State, Wake Forest, Virginia
Nice Wins: Michigan State, Michigan, North Carolina, Miami (FL)
Bad Losses: Morgan State

Miami FL (17-10, 6-8): The Hurricanes have played a lot of good teams this season, including Connecticut and Kentucky out of conference. The key is that their computer numbers are fantastic and they have two very winnable games remaining on their schedule against Georgia Tech & NC State.

Remaning Schedule: Georgia Tech, N. C. State
Nice Wins: Kentucky, Boston College, Maryland, Wake Forest, Boston College
Bad Losses: N. C. State

Big East

Locks (5):



Providence (17-11, 9-7): The Friars were really a forgotten bubble team before their huge win over #1 Pittsburgh on Wednesday night. Now the entire college basketball world is in shock and Providence is the talk of the bubble world. If Providence beats Rutgers (very likely) then they will have 10 Big East wins. That's important.

Remaining Schedule: Rutgers, Villanova
Nice Wins: Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Cincinnati (2),
Bad Losses: Northeastern, Baylor

Syracuse (20-8, 8-7): Orange fans are starting to feel uneasy after missing the NCAA Tiurnament the last two seasons, but let me do some re-assuring for just a second. I don't see how Syracuse can miss the Big Dance at this point unless they lose out. This is mainly for precausionary reasons.

Remaning Schedule: Cincinnati, Rutgers, Marquette
Nice Wins: Memphis, West Virginia, Kansas, Florida, Notre Dame
Bad Losses: Cleveland State,

West Virginia (19-9, 8-7): The Mountaineers great computer numbers have them within range to capture an at large bid (just like Syracuse). West Virginia's loss to Cincinnati on Thursday night wasn't exactly what they needed, but it didn't hurt them too bad just yet. Two of the last three are very winnable.

Remaning Schedule: South Florida, DePaul, Louisville
Nice Wins: Providence, Notre Dame, Ohio State
Bad Losses: None (did lose to Davidson & Kentucky though)

Cincinnati (18-10, 8-7): The Bearcats are looking for that gigantic win that pushes a resume over the top (like Providence over Pittsburgh). Beating West Virginia was nice but it wasn't the kind of win that gets you into the NCAA Tournament. Beating Syracuse on Sunday would probably do the trick.

Remaning Schedule: Syracuse, South Florida, Seton Hall
Nice Wins: UAB, UNLV, West Virginia, Georgetown
Bad Losses: None

Notre Dame (16-12, 7-9): Things are starting to look bleak again for the Fighting Irish. Coming into Saturday they had renewed hope after wins over Providence and Louisville had helped counter a seven game losing streak. Connecticut outlasted Notre Dame for the win on Saturday though, leaving ND's main hope relying on a 9-9 Big East record.

Remaning Schedule: Villanova, St. Johns
Nice Wins: Providence, Louisville, Georgetown, Texas
Bad Losses: St. Johns

Georgetown (15-12, 6-10): How many lives the do the Hoyas have? Every time they seem gone for dead they find a way to stay alive. On Saturday they knocked off Villanova to keep their chances of a miracle finish alive. Still wins over St. Johns and DePaul are absolutely necessary before a decent run in the Big East Tournament. The Hoyas have the #1 SOS.

Remaining Schedule: Villanova, St. Johns, DePaul
Nice Wins: Syracuse, Providence, Maryland, Memphis
Bad Losses: Seton Hall


Big Ten:

Locks (3):

 

Ohio State (18-9, 8-8): Ohio State has now lost four of five games to fall squarely back on the NCAA Tournament bubble. Winning out would give Ohio State a 10-8 Big Ten finish, which will probably be enough with the list of good wins they have. The problem is one of those games comes against pesky Northwestern, a team OSU has already lost to once.

Remaning Schedule: Iowa, Northwestern
Nice Wins: Penn State, Michigan, Purdue, Miami (FL), Notre Dame, Butler
Bad Losses: Northwestern

Penn State (20-9, 9-7); Whew! That's the sound of Penn State fans after their comeback to knock off Big Ten bottom dwellar Indiana. Another win over Indiana (hopefully not as ugly as last time) and a win over Indiana would give the Nittany Lions a total of 11 Big Ten wins. That certainly may do it.

Remaining Schedule: Illinois, Iowa
Nice Wins: Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan
Bad Losses: None (did lose to Rhode Island)

Wisconsin (17-10, 8-7): Wisconsin's resume reminds me a lot of Notre Dame's resume (except they lost six straight games compared to seven), but the Badgers have much better computer numbers. Before losing to Michigan State the Badgers have won five straight games to get back into relatively safe territory.

Remaning Schedule: Michigan, Minnesota, Indiana
Nice Wins: Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Virginia Tech
Bad Losses: Iowa

Minnesota (20-8, 8-8): The Golden Gophers appeared destined for an at large bid early in the season after a 18-3 start to the season that included a win over Louisville. Since then the Gophers are 2-5 with losses to Penn State & Michigan included.  The last two aren't easy but winning at least one is very necessary.

Remaining Schedule: Wisconsin, Michigan
Nice Wins: Louisville, Wisconsin, Penn State, Ohio State
Bad Losses: Northwestern

Michigan (18-11, 8-8): The Wolverines are up and down as evident by their wins over Duke & UCLA and losses to Maryland & Iowa. Still, how many teams have ever been left out of the NCAA Tournament when having wins over Duke and UCLA in the same season? I'm guessing it's a short list. Nine Big Ten wins might be enough.

Remaining Schedule: Wisconsin, Minnesota
Nice Wins: Purdue, Minnesota, Duke, UCLA, Illinois
Bad Losses: Iowa

 

Big 12

Locks (4):

 

Kansas State (20-9, 8-6): The Wildcats are quietly very alive in the bubble picture. Kansas State knocked off Nebraska on Saturday and moved farther towards an at large bid. The next two games against Oklahoma State and Colorado are going to be must wins for Kansas State to get an at large. The downside is they defeated nobody of importance outside of conference.

Remaining Schedule: Oklahoma State, Colorado
Nice Wins: Texas
Bad Losses: Baylor, Nebraska, Oregon, Iowa

Oklahoma State (19-9, 8-6): Finally the Cowboys won an eye opening game to back up their fantastic computer numbers. I'm not sure if Texas knows what hit them. The Cowboys have a huge bubble game against Kansas State next week before finishing with a chance to add a huge win to their resume versus rival Oklahoma.

Remaning Schedule : Kansas State, Oklahoma
Nice Wins: Siena, Nebraska, Texas A&M
Bad Losses: Texas A&M, Baylor

Texas A&M (21-8, 7-7): The Aggies seem like the forgotten team that just won't fade away. Texas A&M can't afford a slipup against Colorado before playing Big 12 monster Missouri. Winning out would make the committee think twice about leaving the Aggies out, especially with a split against Oklahoma State and a win over SEC champion LSU.

Remaining Schedule : Colorado, Missouri
Nice Wins: Nebraska, Oklahoma State, LSU
Bad Losses: Baylor, Kansas State

 

Pac 10

Locks (3):

 

California (21-8, 10-6): The Golden Bears missed a huge chance to lock up a bid on Saturday night against UCLA. The Bears have Arizona and Arizona State left on the schedule. A win in either game would probably be enough to lock up an at large bid. Even if Cal loses out it's going to be tough to deny them a bid with 10 conference wins.

Remaining Schedule : Arizona, Arizona State
Nice Wins: Washington (twice), Arizona, Utah, UNLV
Bad Losses: Oregon State (2)

Arizona (18-11, 8-8): Arizona has lost three straight games to Arizona State, Washington State, and Washington. A win over the Huskies on Saturday would've immensely improved their profile. Instead Arizona has to look at the plus side, which is two games remaining against mediocre conference foes. Wins over Gonzaga, Kansas, UCLA, and Washington are all nice.

Remaining Schedule : California, Stanford
Nice Wins: UCLA, Washington, Gonzaga, San Diego State, Kansas
Bad Losses: None (did lose to USC though)

USC (16-12, 7-9): USC's inconsistency has left the Trojans needing a deep run in the Pac Ten Tournament. Even winning their last two games will not be enough after losing to Stanford, which is inexcusable at this point in the season. Two wins and at least two more in the Pac Ten Tournament (maybe even reaching the Pac Ten finals) is needed.

Remaining Schedule : Oregon, Oregon State
Nice Wins: California, Arizona, Arizona State
Bad Losses: Oregon State, Seton Hall

 

SEC

Locks (1):

 

Tennessee (17-10, 8-5): A lot of people are calling the Volunteers locks, but things are not that simple in Knoxville. Games against Florida and South Carolina won't be easy with at large bids on the line. It's very possible that 9 SEC wins could be enough as long as they don't lose early in the SEC Tournament.

Remaining Schedule : Florida, South Carolina, Alabama
Nice Wins: Siena, Georgetown, South Carolina, Florida
Bad Losses: Auburn, Mississippi (also lost to Kentucky twice)

South Carolina (20-7, 9-5): I spent last night explaining how games against Vanderbilt and Georgia left South Carolina staring at 11 SEC wins at the minimum. Nobody expected Vanderbilt to whoop them, especially after South Carolina's murdered Kentucky on Wednesday. The profile is iffy now, even with wins over Florida and a sweep of Kentucky.

Remaining Schedule : Tennessee, Georgia
Nice Wins: Florida, Kentucky (2)
Bad Losses: Mississippi State, College of Charleston, Vanderbilt

Florida (21-7, 8-5): The Gators have feasted on a soft out of conference schedule and aside from beating Washington & South Carolina they have struggled to beat good teams. Florida missed chances to knock off both Syracuse, Kentucky, and LSU. Their remaining games against Tennesee and Kentucky are huge.

Remaining Schedule : Tennessee, Mississippi State, Kentucky
Nice Wins: Washington, South Carolina
Bad Losses: Georgia

Kentucky (19-10, 8-6: Well, well, well what do we have here? I really can't figure out if this is a team that wants to go to the Big Dance or a team that is okay being the first UK team since 1991 to miss the NCAA Tournament altogether. Back to back losses to South Carolina & LSU have left the Wildcats in big need of two wins to close their season.

Remaining Schedule: LSU, Georgia, Florida
Nice Wins: Tennessee (2), Florida
Bad Losses: Mississippi State, Mississippi

 

Mountain West

Locks (1):

BYU (22-6, 10-4): Another bubble team apparently wants to go dancing, and that team is BYU. The Cougars knocked off the only Mountain West team that was locked into the field, Utah on Saturday. Wyoming isn't an easy win but a win there paired with a win over Air Force would give BYU a 12-4 MWC record going into the MWC Tournament.

Remain ing Schedule: Wyoming, Air Force
Nice Wins: San Diego State, Utah
Bad Losses: None

New Mexico (19-10, 10-4):  Somehow the Lobos keep getting forgotten in all of this bubble talk although they are in a tie for second place in the conference. New Mexico came from behind to knock off Colorado State in double overtime, setting up a huge game with Utah.

Remaining Schedule: Colorado State, Utah, Wyoming
Nice Wins: BYU, UNLV
Bad Losses: UCF, Texas Tech, UTEP

San Diego State (19-8, 9-5): Knocking off TCU in overtime was really important for the Aztecs at large hopes. A win over Colorado State would set up a huge potential bubble elimination game between San Diego State & UNLV just a few nights before the start of the Mountain West Tournament.

Remaining Schedule : Colorado State, UNLV
Nice Wins: UNLV, Utah
Bad Losses: Wyoming

UNLV (20-8, 8-6): The Rebels have been one of the most disappointing teams in the country thsi year, but all is not lost. With four teams in the Mountain West with a chance to get to 10 conference wins (the maximum for UNLV) the Rebels probably need to win their remaning two and then at least one in the MWC Tournament to feel safe.

Remaining Schedule : Air Force, San Diego State
Nice Wins: Louisville, Utah, BYU, New Mexico
Bad Losses: Colorado State, Wyoming, TCU

 

Others:

Locks (4):

 

Dayton (24-5, 10-4):  The Flyers were in great shape before dropping back to back games to Saint Louis and Rhode Island. On Saturday their win over Temple got them back on track. If the Flyers can beat Xavier again this week then I don't see any way they get left out of the big dance.

Remaining Schedule : Xavier, Duquense
Nice Wins: Xavier, Marquette, Temple
Bad Losses: St. Louis, Charlotte, Massachusetts

Rhode Island (21-8, 10-4): The Rams just keep staying alive. Since starting the season 12-7 Rhode Island has won 9 of 10 games. The next two are very winnable (Duquense, Massachsetts) before the Atlantic Ten tournament. If they win their next two games they will avoid Xavier until the finals.

Remaining Schedule : Duquense, Massachusetts
Nice Wins: Dayton, Temple, Penn State
Bad Losses: Saint Josephs

Temple (17-11, 9-5): The Owls are probably going to need to win the Atlantic Ten Tournament to get into the Big Dance. The wins over Tennessee & Penn State look good on the resume but back to back losses to La Salle & Dayton have really affected their chances of getting an at large.

Remaining Schedule : Saint Josephs, George Washington
Nice Wins: Tennessee, Penn State
Bad Losses: Buffalo, Miami (OH), La Salle

UAB (20-9, 10-4): The Blazers really need to knock off Memphis to have any chance to get into the field, but that fell apart. They do have one more chance to knock off the Tigers, but it will likely be in the Conference USA Tournament final unless they fall to the #4 seed in the standings. In that scenario they'd meet the Tigers in the semifinals.

Remaining Schedule : East Carolina, UTEP, Marshall
Nice Wins: Arizona
Bad Losses: Tulsa, Houston

Siena (22-7, 15-2):  For all intensive purposes losing to Niagara on Friday night pretty much ruined the Saints at large hopes, along with losing to Rider earlier this week. Siena should plan on winning the MAAC Tournament to claim a NCAA Tournament bid, unless a lot of other bubble teams start to fall apart.

Remaining Schedule : Canisius
Nice Wins: Northern Iowa
Bad Losses: Rider, Niagara

Creighton (25-6, 14-4): The Blue Jays are making a huge run towards the Big Dance. After a 5-4 start in conference play Creighton has now taken the lead in the Missouri Valley by winning ten straight games. Beating George Mason in the bracketbuster game was pretty much the capping of a nice profile. If Creighton loses in the MVC final they have a compelling case for an at large.

Remaining Schedule : Illinois State
Nice Wins: George Mason, Northern Iowa, Dayton
Bad Losses: Illinois State, Drake

Davidson (24-6, 17-2): The Wildcats knew their game with Butler was probably for their at large hope lives, and they lost. Grabbing an at large bid would mean the Wildcats had lost three Socon games this year, which is not really an achievement after the way they've run through the conference in past years. Davidson better win the Socon.

Remaining Schedule : Georgia Southern, Elon
Nice Wins: West Virginia
Bad Losses: The Citadel, College of Charleston

St. Marys (23-5, 9-4): The Gaels case is going to be one of the more interesting on Selection Sunday. Will the committee cut them some slack because they lost Patty Mills in a game against Gonzaga where they were in control at halftime? Or will three losses (including one in the WCC Tourney) to the Zags be the doom of them?

Remaining Schedule : Loyola-Marymount
Nice Wins: Utah State, Portland
Bad Losses: Santa Clara, UTEP

Utah State (26-4, 13-2): The Aggies loss to St. Marys in the bracketbusters really killed their at large mojo, and following it up with a loss to Nevada didn't really help the situation any. I will leave Utah State on the list due to their decent RPI and guady record, but unless they lose an incredibly competitive WAC final I think anything short of an auto won't be enough.

Remaining Schedule: Nevada, San Jose State
Nice Wins: Utah
Bad Losses:
Boise State

 

 

 

Posted on: February 27, 2009 11:36 pm
Edited on: February 28, 2009 12:01 pm
 

Bubble Watch: Before Saturday's Games

I finally found some logos I like and amazingly in the same day I found time to start my bubble watch! This will be updated daily as the rest of the season plays out. On Saturday there are some monster bubble games including Georgetown-Villanova, Notre Dame-Connecticut, and Arizona-Washington where the Hoyas, Fighting Irish, and Wildcats fight for their bubble lives.

Which bubble teams can we really count on down the stretch?

It looked like Arizona was one of those teams before they fell to Washington State on Thursday night. Virginia Tech took advantage of a monster game against Clemson that added another large win to their profile. And UAB left a huge game against Memphis on the floor when their leading scorer Robert Vaden went 0-17 from the field.

That ladies and gentlemen leaves us with one very crazy bubble. Let's break it down mathematically.

At Large Spots: 34
Locks: 25
Locks (minus teams projected to win conference tournament): 25-7=18
At Large Spots Remaining: 34-18=16

My math shows that I am projecting that 16 at large spots remain .

I have 38 teams listed on the bubble below to fight for those spots. If your team isn't on the list below they probably need to win their conference tournament to get into the NCAA Tournament, but it is possible that a few teams can still win their way onto the bubble.

Here's today's bubble watch:

ACC

Locks (4):


Florida State (21-7, 8-5): The Seminoles are in rare position for a bubble team, because they don't need quality wins. Instead they really just need wins to add to their profile. The closing stretch isn't easy but the Seminoles do have three chances to add a nice win to their already impressive resume before the ACC Tournament starts.

Remaning Schedule: Clemson, Duke, Virginia Tech
Nice Wins: Florida, California, Clemson, Maryland, Miami (FL), Virginia Tech, Cincinnati
Bad Losses: Northwestern

Boston College (20-9, 8-6): The Eagles have wins over Duke, Wake Forest, and North Carolina this season so it's going to be hard for the selection committee to leave Boston College out of the Big Dance. The last two are very winnable so a 10- 6 finish in conference play is very likely.

Remaning Schedule: N. C. State, Georgia Tech
Nice Wins: UAB, Duke, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Maryland, Virginia Tech
Bad Losses: St. Louis, Harvard

Virginia Tech (17-10, 7-6): The Hokies have wins over Clemson & Wake Forest, but they haven't helped themselves lately outside of their road win over the Tigers. Before the win the Hokies had lost three straight games and had faded from safe territory to very bad shape.

Remaning Schedule: Duke, North Carolina, Florida State
Nice Wins: Boston College, Wake Forest, Clemson
Bad Losses: Georgia, Seton Hall

Maryland (17-10, 6-7): The Terps win over North Carolina was shocking, mainly because they had been blown out by good competition in most meetings this year. The victory tremendously helped Maryland because it brought wins they had early in the year over both Michigan and Michigan State back into the fray.

Remaning Schedule: N. C. State, Wake Forest, Virginia
Nice Wins: Michigan State, Michigan, North Carolina, Miami (FL)
Bad Losses: Morgan State

Miami FL (17-10, 6-8): The Hurricanes have played a lot of good teams this season, including Connecticut and Kentucky out of conference. The key is that their computer numbers are fantastic and they have two very winnable games remaining on their schedule against Georgia Tech & NC State.

Remaning Schedule: Georgia Tech, N. C. State
Nice Wins: Kentucky, Boston College, Maryland, Wake Forest, Boston College
Bad Losses: N. C. State

Big East

Locks (5):



Providence (17-11, 9-7): The Friars were really a forgotten bubble team before their huge win over #1 Pittsburgh on Wednesday night. Now the entire college basketball world is in shock and Providence is the talk of the bubble world. If Providence beats Rutgers (very likely) then they will have 10 Big East wins. That's important.

Remaining Schedule: Rutgers, Villanova
Nice Wins: Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Cincinnati (2),
Bad Losses: Northeastern, Baylor

Syracuse (20-8, 8-7): Orange fans are starting to feel uneasy after missing the NCAA Tiurnament the last two seasons, but let me do some re-assuring for just a second. I don't see how Syracuse can miss the Big Dance at this point unless they lose out. This is mainly for precausionary reasons.

Remaning Schedule: Cincinnati, Rutgers, Marquette
Nice Wins: Memphis, West Virginia, Kansas, Florida, Notre Dame
Bad Losses: Cleveland State,

West Virginia (19-9, 8-7): The Mountaineers great computer numbers have them within range to capture an at large bid (just like Syracuse). West Virginia's loss to Cincinnati on Thursday night wasn't exactly what they needed, but it didn't hurt them too bad just yet. Two of the last three are very winnable.

Remaning Schedule: South Florida, DePaul, Louisville
Nice Wins: Providence, Notre Dame, Ohio State
Bad Losses: None (did lose to Davidson & Kentucky though)

Cincinnati (18-10, 8-7): The Bearcats are looking for that gigantic win that pushes a resume over the top (like Providence over Pittsburgh). Beating West Virginia was nice but it wasn't the kind of win that gets you into the NCAA Tournament. Beating Syracuse on Sunday would probably do the trick.

Remaning Schedule: Syracuse, South Florida, Seton Hall
Nice Wins: UAB, UNLV, West Virginia, Georgetown
Bad Losses: None

Notre Dame (16-11, 7-8): The Fighting Irish have somehow survived their seven game losing streak. Since then they have wins over Louisville and Providence that have really turned their season around. The closing stretch isn't easy but a win over Connecticut on Saturday could mean a dance ticket in March.

Remaning Schedule: Connecticut, Villanova, St. Johns
Nice Wins: Providence, Louisville, Georgetown, Texas
Bad Losses: St. Johns

Georgetown (14-12, 5-10): The Hoyas are only on the bubble because of their great RPI and the fact that they've played the nation's hardest schedule. Still if Georgetown can knock off Villanova on Saturday then the final two games are very winnable. Is it possible that an 8-10 Big East record and a win in the Big East tournament could be enough?

Remaining Schedule: Villanova, St. Johns, DePaul
Nice Wins: Syracuse, Providence, Maryland, Memphis
Bad Losses: Seton Hall


Big Ten:

Locks (3):

 

Ohio State (18-8, 8-7): The Buckeyes appeared ahead back to the NCAA Tournament before a three game losing streak put them back on the bubble. Ohio State is still in really good shape at this point, especially after knocking off fellow bubbler Penn State in Columbus earlier this week.

Remaning Schedule: Purdue, Iowa, Northwestern
Nice Wins: Penn State, Michigan, Purdue, Miami (FL), Notre Dame, Butler
Bad Losses: Northwestern

Penn State (19-9, 8-7); The Nittany Lions season is one of streaks. They win a few in a row and always follow up a winning week with a losing week (or two). With Indiana, Illinois, and Iowa left it's time to start wondering whether 10 Big Ten wins would be enough. In most years it is, and this year it will look good come Selection Sunday.

Remaining Schedule: Indiana, Illinois, Iowa
Nice Wins: Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan
Bad Losses: Rhode Island

Wisconsin (17-10, 8-7): Wisconsin's resume reminds me a lot of Notre Dame's resume (except they lost six straight games compared to seven), but the Badgers have much better computer numbers. Before losing to Michigan State the Badgers have won five straight games to get back into relatively safe territory.

Remaning Schedule: Michigan, Minnesota, Indiana
Nice Wins: Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Virginia Tech
Bad Losses: Iowa

Minnesota (20-8, 8-8): The Golden Gophers appeared destined for an at large bid early in the season after a 18-3 start to the season that included a win over Louisville. Since then the Gophers are 2-5 with losses to Penn State & Michigan included.  The last two aren't easy but winning at least one is very necessary.

Remaining Schedule: Wisconsin, Michigan
Nice Wins: Louisville, Wisconsin, Penn State, Ohio State
Bad Losses: Northwestern

Michigan (18-11, 8-8): The Wolverines are up and down as evident by their wins over Duke & UCLA and losses to Maryland & Iowa. Still, how many teams have ever been left out of the NCAA Tournament when having wins over Duke and UCLA in the same season? I'm guessing it's a short list. Nine Big Ten wins might be enough.

Remaining Schedule: Wisconsin, Minnesota
Nice Wins: Purdue, Minnesota, Duke, UCLA, Illinois
Bad Losses: Iowa

 

Big 12

Locks (4):

 

Kansas State (19-9, 7-6): With three very winnable games remaining its not impossible for the Wildcats to get to 10 Big 12 wins. Their game with Nebraska is probably a bubble elimination game, as is their game with Oklahoma State right after that. The problem for Kansas State is they did nothing outside of the Big 12.

Remaining Schedule: Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Colorado
Nice Wins: Texas
Bad Losses: Baylor, Nebraska, Oregon, Iowa

Oklahoma State (18-9, 7-6): The Cowboys computer numbers are pretty high for a team that hasn't really defeated any NCAA Tournament bound teams. Four straight wins have revived their bubble hopes. Their three final games--Texas, Kansas State, Oklahoma--will make or break their season.

Remaning Schedule : Texas, Kansas State, Oklahoma
Nice Wins: Siena, Nebraska, Texas A&M
Bad Losses: Texas A&M, Baylor

Texas A&M (20-8, 6-7): The buzzer beating win over Nebraska knocks the Cornhuskers off of this list for now and revives the Aggies small at large hopes. Games against Iowa State and Colorado are very winnable before a potential game for their season against conference giant Missouri.

Remaining Schedule : Iowa State, Colorado, Missouri
Nice Wins: Nebraska, Oklahoma State, LSU
Bad Losses: Baylor, Kansas State

 

Pac 10

Locks (3):

 

California (21-7, 10-5): The Golden Bears are pretty much locked in at this point. The only reason they aren't under my locks section is because I'm not sure the committee would take a California team that goes 10-8 in conference play and finishes up with a loss in the Pac 10 Tournament. At this point they are in great shape though.

Remaining Schedule : UCLA, Arizona, Arizona State
Nice Wins: Washington (twice), Arizona, Utah, UNLV
Bad Losses: Oregon State (2)

Arizona (18-10, 8-7): The Wildcats appeared on their way back into the NCAA Tournament before losing to Washington State on Thursday night. Arizona had won seven straight games before dropping back to back games to Arizona State and Wazzou.  Winning two of three down the stretch will help their cause.

Remaining Schedule : Washington, California, Stanford
Nice Wins: UCLA, Washington, Gonzaga, San Diego State, Kansas
Bad Losses: None (did lose to USC though)

USC (16-11, 7-8): The Trojans have been very inconsistent, but luckily the last three are very winnable against Stanford, Oregon, and Oregon State. The problem is that they have a lot of bad losses-Oregon State, Seton Hall included--to match their big wins over California, Arizona, and Arizona State.

Remaining Schedule : Stanford, Oregon, Oregon State
Nice Wins: California, Arizona, Arizona State
Bad Losses: Oregon State, Seton Hall

 

SEC

Locks (1):

 

Tennessee (17-10, 8-5): A lot of people are calling the Volunteers locks, but things are not that simple in Knoxville. Games against Florida and South Carolina won't be easy with at large bids on the line. It's very possible that 9 SEC wins could be enough as long as they don't lose early in the SEC Tournament.

Remaining Schedule : Florida, South Carolina, Alabama
Nice Wins: Siena, Georgetown, South Carolina, Florida
Bad Losses: Auburn, Mississippi (also lost to Kentucky twice)

South Carolina (20-6, 9-4): The Gamecocks monster win over Kentucky on Wednesday night was extremely large for their NCAA Tournament hopes. South Carolina swept Kentucky and has a win over Florida at the buzzer. Games against Vanderbilt and Georgia make 11 SEC wins a very distinct possibility.

Remaining Schedule : Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia
Nice Wins: Florida, Kentucky (2)
Bad Losses: Mississippi State, College of Charleston

Florida (21-7, 8-5): The Gators have feasted on a soft out of conference schedule and aside from beating Washington & South Carolina they have struggled to beat good teams. Florida missed chances to knock off both Syracuse, Kentucky, and LSU. Their remaining games against Tennesee and Kentucky are huge.

Remaining Schedule : Tennessee, Mississippi State, Kentucky
Nice Wins: Washington, South Carolina
Bad Losses: Georgia

Kentucky (19-9, 8-5): Kentucky's loss to South Carolina made their remaining games even more important. A loss to red hot LSU on Saturday would send them to 8-6 in the SEC with games against very beatable Georgia and SEC rival Florida remaining on the schedule.

Remaining Schedule: LSU, Georgia, Florida
Nice Wins: Tennessee (2), Florida
Bad Losses: Mississippi State, Mississippi

 

Mountain West

Locks (1):

BYU (21-6, 9-4): Other than Utah (which appears locked in) the Cougars appear to be in the best shape of the Mountain West bubble teams to claim an at large bid.  A win over those same Utes on Saturday will pretty much lock the Cougars in, barring a horrendous three game losing streak to end the season.

Remain ing Schedule: Utah, Wyoming, Air Force
Nice Wins: San Diego State
Bad Losses: None

New Mexico (18-10, 9-4):  Somehow the Lobos keep getting forgotten in all of this bubble talk although they are in a tie for second place in the conference. Two of their final three games are extremely winnable, and the other game is against Utah. A win there could really solidify their at large profile.

Remaining Schedule: Colorado State, Utah, Wyoming
Nice Wins: BYU, UNLV
Bad Losses: UCF, Texas Tech, UTEP

San Diego State (18-8, 9-5): If San Diego State wins their next two (TCU, Colorado State) then the Aztecs will play UNLV in a potential bubble elimination game right before the beginning of the Mountain West Tournament. Winning all three of their remaining games would get them to 12 conference wins. Is that enough? We shall see.

Remaining Schedule : TCU, Colorado State, UNLV
Nice Wins: UNLV, Utah
Bad Losses: Wyoming

UNLV (20-8, 8-6): The Rebels have been one of the most disappointing teams in the country thsi year, but all is not lost. With four teams in the Mountain West with a chance to get to 10 conference wins (the maximum for UNLV) the Rebels probably need to win their remaning two and then at least one in the MWC Tournament to feel safe.

Remaining Schedule : Air Force, San Diego State
Nice Wins: Louisville, Utah, BYU, New Mexico
Bad Losses: Colorado State, Wyoming, TCU

 

Others:

Locks (4):

 

Dayton (23-5, 9-4):  The Flyers were in great shape before dropping back to back games to Saint Louis and Rhode Island. Now they are back on the bubble and trying to secure a NCAA Tournament bid by winning three in a row, which would also include a sweep of rival Dayton.

Remaining Schedule : Temple, Xavier, Duquense
Nice Wins: Xavier, Marquette
Bad Losses: St. Louis, Charlotte, Massachusetts

Rhode Island (21-8, 10-4): The Rams just keep staying alive. Since starting the season 12-7 Rhode Island has won 9 of 10 games. The next two are very winnable (Duquense, Massachsetts) before the Atlantic Ten tournament. If they win their next two games they will avoid Xavier until the finals.

Remaining Schedule : Duquense, Massachusetts
Nice Wins: Dayton, Temple, Penn State
Bad Losses: Saint Josephs

Temple (17-10, 9-4): The Owls can thank their computer numbers for remaining on the bubble this long. Beating Dayton on Saturday would make a serious statement, and following that up with two straight wins would give the Owls 20 wins and a 12-4 conference record. Do not sleep on Temple.

Remaining Schedule : Dayton, Saint Josephs, George Washington
Nice Wins: Tennessee, Penn State
Bad Losses: Buffalo, Miami (OH), La Salle

UAB (19-9, 9-4): The Blazers really need to knock off Memphis to have any chance to get into the field, but that fell apart. They do have one more chance to knock off the Tigers, but it will likely be in the Conference USA Tournament final unless they fall to the #4 seed in the standings.

Remaining Schedule : East Carolina, UTEP, Marshall
Nice Wins: Arizona
Bad Losses: Tulsa, Houston

Siena (22-7, 15-2):  For all intensive purposes losing to Niagara on Friday night pretty much ruined the Saints at large hopes, along with losing to Rider earlier this week. Siena should plan on winning the MAAC Tournament to claim a NCAA Tournament bid, unless a lot of other bubble teams start to fall apart.

Remaining Schedule : Canisius
Nice Wins: Northern Iowa
Bad Losses: Rider, Niagara

Creighton (24-6, 13-4): The Blue Jays are making a huge run towards the Big Dance. After a 5-4 start in conference play Creighton has now taken the lead in the Missouri Valley by winning nine straight games. Beating George Mason in the bracketbuster game was pretty much the capping of a nice profile. If Creighton loses in the MVC final they have a compelling case for an at large.

Remaining Schedule : Illinois State
Nice Wins: George Mason, Northern Iowa, Dayton
Bad Losses: Illinois State, Drake

Davidson (23-6, 16-2): The Wildcats knew their game with Butler was probably for their at large hope lives, and they lost. Grabbing an at large bid would mean the Wildcats had lost three Socon games this year, which is not really an achievement the way they've run through the conference in past years. Davidson better win the Socon.

Remaining Schedule : Georgia Southern, Elon
Nice Wins: West Virginia
Bad Losses: The Citadel, College of Charleston

St. Marys (23-5, 9-4): The Gaels case is going to be one of the more interesting on Selection Sunday. Will the committee cut them some slack because they lost Patty Mills in a game against Gonzaga where they were in control at halftime? Or will three losses (including one in the WCC Tourney) to the Zags be the doom of them?

Remaining Schedule : Loyola-Marymount
Nice Wins: Utah State, Portland
Bad Losses: Santa Clara, UTEP

Utah State (26-3, 13-1): The Aggies loss to St. Marys in the bracketbusters really killed their at large mojo, although it's hard to see the committee leaving out a four loss team. The key is that Utah State's schedule is very weak. Other than an 18 games winning streak (when they did beat Utah) their overall resume is pretty weak.

Remaining Schedule: Nevada, San Jose State
Nice Wins: Utah
Bad Losses:
Boise State

 

Category: NCAAB
Tags: Bubble Watch
 
Posted on: February 25, 2009 6:55 pm
Edited on: February 25, 2009 6:58 pm
 

Bubble Watch: Before Wednesday's Games

At this point the bubble is very interesting, but here's the best I can do. My new bracketology is coming tonight!

Auto Bid Projection (31):
NOTE: At this point the teams listed below are the regular season leaders of each conference, meaning they would be favored to win their conference tournament. This list will change dramatically as conference tournaments are played out.

American East: Vermont (22-7, 12-3)
Atlantic Sun: Jacksonville (16-11, 14-4)
ACC: North Carolina (24-3, 10-3)
Atlantic Ten: Xavier (22-5, 10-3)
Big East: Connecticut (25-2, 13-2)
Big Sky: Weber State (18-8, 12-1)
Big South: Radford (17-10, 14-2)
Big Ten: Michigan State (21-5, 11-3)
Big 12: Kansas (23-5, 12-1)
Big West: Long Beach State (13-12, 8-4)
CAA: Virginia Commonwealth (19-9, 12-4)
Conference USA: Memphis (24-3, 12-0)
Horizon: Butler (23-4, 13-3)
Ivy League: Cornell (18-8, 8-2)
MAAC: Siena (22-6, 15-1)
MAC: Buffalo (17-8, 9-3)
MEAC: Morgan State (18-11, 12-3)
Missouri Valley: Creighton (24-6, 13-4)
Mountain West: Utah (19-7, 10-2)
Northeast: Robert Morris (19-10, 13-3)
Ohio Valley: UT Martin (19-8, 12-4)
Pac 10: Washington (20-7, 11-4)
Patriot League: American (19-7, 11-1)
SEC: LSU (24-4, 12-1)
Southern: Davidson (22-6, 15-2)
Southland: Stephen F. Austin (17-7, 9-3)
Summit: North Dakota State (21-6, 14-2)
SWAC: Alabama State (16-8, 13-1)
Sun Belt: Western Kentucky (19-8, 13-3)
WAC: Utah State (25-1, 12-1)
WCC: Gonzaga (21-5, 12-0)

Locks (13):
NOTE: These are teams that are going to the NCAA Tournament regardless how they finish the season.

Clemson (22-4, 8-4)
Duke (22-5, 8-4)
Wake Forest (20-5, 7-5)
Louisville (22-5, 13-2)
Marquette (23-4, 12-2)
Pittsburgh (25-3, 12-3)
Villanova (20-5, 10-4)
Oklahoma (25-3, 11-2)
Missouri (23-4, 10-2)
Purdue (21-6, 10-4)
Illinois (22-6, 10-5)
Arizona State (21-5, 10-4)
UCLA (20-7, 9-5)

Almost Locks (6):
NOTE: These teams are practically locks for the NCAA Tournament field. Barring a major collapse you can still count them in.

Florida State (21-7, 8-5)
West Virginia (19-8, 8-6)
Syracuse (20-8, 8-7)
Ohio State (18-8, 8-7)
Boston College (20-9, 8-6)
Texas (18-8, 7-5)

Bubble (15 Spots Available):
NOTE: These teams are all in contention for an at large berth. I have listed every team with even the faintest possibility of an at large berth. Notice there are 30 teams listed and only 15 spots available.

Maryland (17-9, 6-6)
Virginia Tech (16-6, 6-6)
Miami FL (16-10, 5-8)
Providence (17-11, 9-7)
Dayton (23-4, 9-3)
Temple (17-9, 9-3)
Cincinnati (17-10, 7-7)
Notre Dame (15-11, 6-8)
Georgetown (14-12, 5-10)
Minnesota (20-7, 8-7)
Penn State (19-9, 8-7)
Wisconsin (17-10, 8-7)
Michigan (17-11, 7-8)
Kansas State (19-8, 7-5)
Nebraska (16-10, 6-7)
Oklahoma State (17-9, 6-6)
Texas A&M (20-8, 6-7)
UAB (19-8, 9-3)
Northern Iowa (19-10, 13-4)
BYU (21-6, 9-4)
New Mexico (18-10, 9-4)
UNLV (20-7, 8-5)
San Diego State (18-8, 8-5)
California (20-7, 9-5)
Arizona (18-9, 8-6)
USC (16-10, 7-7)
South Carolina (19-6, 8-4)
Kentucky (18-8, 8-4)
Florida (21-7, 8-5)
Tennessee (16-10, 7-5)

 

 

Category: NCAAB
Tags: Bubble Watch
 
Posted on: February 24, 2009 5:05 pm
 

Up to the second bubble watch

KEY:
Locks: Teams that are in the NCAA Tournament for sure, even without an auto bid
Should Be Ins: The next level down from lock status. These teams are pretty sure they are going dancing.
Bubble In/Out Projection: My up to the second projection from my latest bracket, telling you who is in/who is out

Total Locks: 21
Should Be Ins: 4
Total: 25

To figure out how many at large spots are available we will assume that the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, and Pac 10 will be won by one of the teams with a "lock status". Then we will add in Conference USA since Memphis hasn't lost a conference game in years. That takes seven of the at large bids we just projected and makes them automatic bids.

25-7=18
34-18=16

There are 16 spots at large spots available for bubble teams right now . I realize that I used 21 spots for bubble teams down below, but keep in mind that the SEC will probably be won by one of the five teams I listed, and that the Horizon & Socon will probably be won by Davidson & Butler.

ACC:
Locks:
4: Duke, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Clemson
Should Be Ins: 1: Florida State
Bubble In Projection: 3: Boston College, Maryland, Miami FL
Bubble Out Projection: 1: Virginia Tech

Atlantic 10:
Locks: 1: Xavier
Should Be Ins: 0
Bubble In Projection: 1: Dayton
Bubble Out Projection: 1: Temple

Big East:
Locks:
5: Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Louisville, Villanova
Should Be Ins: 2: West Virginia, Syracuse
Bubble In Projection: 0
Bubble Out Projection: 4: Providence, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Cincinnati

Big Ten:
Locks:
3: Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois
Should Be Ins: 0
Bubble In Projection: 4: Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Penn State
Bubble Out Projection: 1: Northwestern, Michigan

Big 12:
Locks:
3: Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri
Should Be Ins: 0
Bubble In Projection: 2: Texas, Oklahoma State
Bubble Out Projection: 5: Nebraska, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Baylor

Pac 10:
Locks:
3: Washington, UCLA, Arizona State
Should Be Ins: 0
Bubble In Projection: 2: Arizona, California
Bubble Out Projection: 1: USC

SEC:
Locks:
0
Should Be Ins: 1: LSU
Bubble In Projection: 4: Kentucky, Florida, South Carolina, Tennesseee
Bubble Out Projection: 0

Mountain West:
Locks:
0
Should Be Ins: 0
Bubble In Projection: 3: BYU , Utah, UNLV
Bubble Out Projection: 2: New Mexico, San Diego State

Others:
Locks:
2: Gonzaga, Memphis
Should Be Ins: 0
Bubble In Projection: 2: Butler, Davidson
Bubble Out Projection: 4: Utah State, VCU, Creighton, UAB

 

Category: NCAAB
Tags: Bubble Watch
 
Posted on: February 20, 2009 11:51 am
Edited on: February 20, 2009 3:26 pm
 

A Quick Rundown of the Bubble Picture

I decided to do a quick rundown of the bubble picture so we could see how many spots are still available. 

KEY:
Locks: Teams that are in the NCAA Tournament for sure, even without an auto bid
Should Be Ins: The next level down from lock status. These teams are pretty sure they are going dancing.
Bubble In/Out Projection: My up to the second projection from my latest bracket, telling you who is in/who is out

Total Locks: 21
Should Be Ins: 4
Total: 25

To figure out how many at large spots are available we will assume that the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, and Pac 10 will be won by one of the teams with a "lock status". Then we will add in Conference USA since Memphis hasn't lost a conference game in years. That takes seven of the at large bids we just projected and makes them automatic bids.

25-7=18
34-18=16

There are 16 spots at large spots available for bubble teams right now . I realize that I used 18 spots for bubble teams down below, but keep in mind that the SEC will probably be won by one of the five teams I listed, and that the Horizon & Socon will probably be won by Davidson & Butler.

ACC:
Locks:
4: Duke, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Clemson
Should Be Ins: 1: Florida State
Bubble In Projection: 2: Boston College, Virginia Tech
Bubble Out Projection: 2: Miami FL, Maryland

Atlantic 10:
Locks: 1: Xavier
Should Be Ins: 0
Bubble In Projection: 1: Dayton
Bubble Out Projection: 1: Temple

Big East:
Locks:
5: Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Louisville, Villanova
Should Be Ins: 2: West Virginia, Syracuse
Bubble In Projection: 1: Cincinnati
Bubble Out Projection: 3: Providence, Georgetown, Notre Dame

Big Ten:
Locks:
3: Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois
Should Be Ins: 0
Bubble In Projection: 4: Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan
Bubble Out Projection: 1: Northwestern, Penn State

Big 12:
Locks:
3: Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri
Should Be Ins: 0
Bubble In Projection: 1: Texas
Bubble Out Projection: 5: Nebraska, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Baylor

Pac 10:
Locks:
3: Washington, UCLA, Arizona State
Should Be Ins: 1: California
Bubble In Projection: 2: Arizona, USC
Bubble Out Projection: 0

SEC:
Locks:
0
Should Be Ins: 0
Bubble In Projection: 5: LSU, Kentucky, Florida, South Carolina, Tennesseee
Bubble Out Projection: 1: Mississippi State

Mountain West:
Locks:
0
Should Be Ins: 0
Bubble In Projection: 3: BYU, San Diego State, Utah
Bubble Out Projection: 2: New Mexico, UNLV

Others:
Locks:
2: Gonzaga, Memphis
Should Be Ins: 0
Bubble In Projection: 2: Butler, Davidson
Bubble Out Projection: 4: Utah State, VCU, Creighton, UAB

 

Category: NCAAB
Tags: Bubble Watch
 
Posted on: March 13, 2008 12:00 am
Edited on: March 13, 2008 12:03 am
 

March 13 Bubble Watch: Syracuse is DONE

Monday's biggest loser: Syracuse
Monday's biggest winner:
Villanova

Total Locks (30):

ACC:

Locks (3):

Virginia Tech (18-12, 9-7): The last second loss to Clemson leaves them a not so comfortable position now heading into the ACC Tournament. The Hokies get the winner of the 5/12 game because they get a first round bye as the 4 seed.
Remaining Games: ACC Tournament (March 13-16)

Maryland (18-13, 8-8): Very very bad loss to Virignia and it wasn't even all that close once the Cavaliers made their final push. Wins over both Boston College and Clemson might be needed now.
Remaining Games: Boston College (March 14, ACC Tournament)

Wake Forest (17-9, 7-9): Wake Forest is going to need a huge ACC Tournament run, and the Demon Deacons include making the ACC Final. In the first round they have to play a very dangerous Florida State team and in the second round they have to take on North Carolina.
Remaining Games: Florida State (March 13, ACC Tournament)

Miami (21-9, 8-8): Big loss to Florida State on Saturday but the Canes are still in decent shape. The only way they can probably play themselves out is a loss in the first round in the ACC Tournament.
Remaining Games: ACC Tournament (March 13-16)


Atlantic Ten

Locks (1):

Saint Josephs (18-11, 9-7): Can someone explain the Hawks to me? They lose back to back games against Temple and Saint Louis. Then they beat one of the best teams in the country, Xavier. Then they lose to Dayton. And then they beat Fordham in the first round of the A-10 Tournament. It's going to take a few more wins Hawks.
Remaining Games: Richmond (March 12, Atlantic 10 Tournament)

Massachusetts (20-9, 9-6): At 10-6 if they can avoid losing until at least the semifinals then they would be a tough debate on Selection Sunday. Right now their profile probably has them on the good side of the bubble.
Remaining Games: Charlotte (March 13, Atlantic 10 Tournament)

Dayton (21-9, 8-8): The Flyers are trying to turn things around in time for a last ditch run for the NCAA Tournament. Dayton can get themselves back in everyone's bracket by beating Xavier on Thursday, which will be a very tough task.
Remaining Games: Xavier (March 12, Atlantic 10 Tournament)


Big East

Locks (7):

Villanova (20-11, 9-9): Huge win over Syracuse and a chance to lock up their big with a date against Georgetown on Thursday. A loss would leave them in trouble on Selection Sunday.
Remaining Games: Georgetown, Big East Tournament (March 12-15)

Syracuse (18-13, 9-9): Hey Hey Hey, goodbye! The Cuse are done after that loss to Villanova but hey at least they did it the right away, assisting a fellow Big East teams' (Villanova) hopes by losing big in Madison Square Garden. The NIT isn't THAT bad is it Syracuse fans?
Remaining Games: Big East Tournament (March 12-15)


Big Ten

Locks (4):

Ohio State (19-12, 10-8): Huge win over Purdue followed by an even bigger win over Michigan State. The Buckeyes now have a rematch with the Spartans in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten tournament. If they can win that game then I don't see how they get left out of the field.
Remaining Games: Big Ten Tournament (March 13-16)


Big 12

Locks (2):

Kansas State (21-9, 10-6): Kansas State looks like they are getting into the field. The Wildcats might want a Big 12 tournament win to make sure.
Remaining Games: Texas A&M/ Iowa State (March 13, Big 12 Tournament)

Texas A&M (22-9, 8-8): The Aggies have now fallen to .500 in the Big 12 after the loss to Kansas. Such a promising start has turned completely around and now a win in the Big 12 Tournament is almost a must to lock their bid up.
Remaining Games: Iowa State (March 13, Big 12 Tournament)

Baylor (21-9, 9-7): The Bears victory over Texas Tech has them above .500 in the Big 12. They get Colorado in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament, and their second round game against Oklahoma would be a huge bubble battle. Baylor is looking good for a bid now.
Remaining Games: Colorado (March 13, Big 12 Tournament)

Oklahoma (21-10, 9-7): The Sooners look like they are getting a bid unless they just don't show up for the Big 12 Tournament. Oklahoma's win over Missouri put them 9-7 in the Big 12, a nice record against one of the nation's better conferences.
Remaining Games: Baylor/Colorado (March 14, Big 12 Tournament)


Conference USA

Locks: (1):

Houston (22-8, 11-5): The Cougars are now basically out of the at large hunt. Losing to UTEP puts them in terrible shape and probably means they have to win the Conference USA Tournament to get a bid.
Remaining Games: UTEP (Conference USA Tournament, March 13)

UAB (22-9, 12-4): Wow that was ugly. Luckily if they win a few games they get another chance at Memphis but based off Saturday they may not want one.
Remaining Games: Tulsa/East Carolina (Conference USA Tournament. March 13)


Missouri Valley

Locks: (1):

Illinois State (23-8, 14-5): Big win in the tournament leaves ISU in great shape to get a bid. If they can win on more and get the automatic then their resume won't even matter.
Remaining Games: Season Finished

Creighton (20-10, 10-8): The loss in the Valley semifinals likely ends their chances at the NCAA Tournament. It all depends on if other bubble teams struggle but it's very very unlikely that Creighton gets a bid.
Remaining Games: Season Finished


Mountain West

Locks: (1):

UNLV (23-7, 12-4): The win over Utah gets them 12-4 in the Mountain West and gives them the 2 seed in the MW tournament this week. If they can reach the finals they are going to get a bid to the big dance.
Remaining Games: TCU (Mountain West Tournament, March 13)

New Mexico (24-7, 11-5): HUGE win over UNLV. Then they follow that up by beating Colorado State. If they can reach the Mountain West semifinals then they will be a hard team to leave out on Selection Sunday.
Remaining Games: Utah (Mountain West Tournament, March 13)


Pac 10

Locks (4):

Arizona State (19-11, 9-9): The loss to Oregon leaves everyone comparing the two teams. Luckily ASU has won a game against Xavier this season in the non-conference, a huge win for the Sun Devils. A victory against USC in the Pac 10 quarterfinals will probably get them in.
Remaining Games: USC (Pac 10 Tournament, March 13)

Arizona (18-13, 8-10): I can't believe I'm saying it but right now I have to believe the Wildcats are out after losing to Oregon. A quick exit in the Pac 10 tournament will almost assuredly leave them out on Selection Sunday.
Remaining Games: Oregon State (Pac 10 Tournament, March 12)

Oregon (18-12, 9-9): The Ducks have bounced back quicker than any team all season. They knock off Arizona State and Arizona in three nights and all of a sudden they appear back in the conversation.
Remaining Games: Washington State (Pac 10 Tournament, March 13)


SEC

Locks: (3):

Kentucky (18-11, 12-4): The win over Florida probably leaves the Wildcats in great shape for a bid. Here's a fact a lot of you may not know. Since 1992 when the SEC expanded to 12 teams no team with a conference record of 10 wins or more have been left out of the NCAA Tournament field.
Remaining Games: Mississippi/Georgia (SEC Tournament, March 14)

Florida (21-9, 8-7): The Gators blew a 16 point lead against Tennessee and then almost got blown out of Rupp Arena before staging a late comeback. Now it will take at least reaching the SEC semifinals and just to be sure they might want to reach the SEC Finals.
Remaining Games: Alabama (SEC Tournament, March 14)

Arkansas (20-10, 9-7): Arkansas looks better and better with every win (which haven't been coming as often lately) and every other bubble teams loss. I think the Hogs get in and the only way they don't is if they lose very quickly in the SEC Tournament and then a lot of other bubble teams start lighting ranked teams up. P. S., that isn't going to happen.
Remaining Games: Vanderbilt/Auburn (SEC Tournament, March 14)

Mississippi (19-9, 6-9): Welcome to the conversation against Ole Miss. I was just telling my friend about how much the Ole Miss situation relates to last season's Arkansas debate. Arkansas was completely out of the picture, got hot and won their last few regular season games. Then as the West's third seed they were able to avoid the East's #1 seed and the SEC's best team Florida until the championship game. With a 7-9 record in conference they got into the field as a 12 seed. Arkansas was 5-9 in the SEC and then won five straight games including the SEC Tournament. This season Mississippi is also 7-9 in the SEC. They are the West's 3 seed and will avoid the East #1 seed and the SEC's best team Tennessee until the championship game. That means that Mississippi has the EXACT same profile as Arkansas from last year. That has to mean something doesn't it?
Remaining Games: Georgia (SEC Tournament, March 14)


Others

Locks: (2):

Virginia Commonwealth (24-7, 15-3): The loss in the CAA semifinals leaves a lot to talk about here. Their best non conference win was against Maryland but they did go out and play teams like Miami (FL), Houston, and Arkansas. They beat Houston for another decent non conference win. They are going to be a big bubble discussion on Selection Sunday.
Remaining Games: Season Finished

Kent State (25-6, 13-3): Another bubble team nobody wants to see lose in their conference tournament. They almost assuredly will get an at large after their bracketbuster win. Now the MAC Tournament gets started.
Remaining Games: Mac Tournament (March 12-15)

Category: NCAAB
Tags: Bubble Watch
 
 
 
 
 
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