Explaining the Bracket: January 30, 2012

Which team did I miss on? It may be Dayton

NOTE: The NCAA Tournament bracket can be found on BracketologyExpert.com, along with a Bubble Watch and S-Curve Rankings.

Here are five things that I think you might find interesting about my bracket:

1) Dayton probably should be in my NCAA Tournament field. The Flyers have a couple of terrible losses, but I think I can find it in my heart to forgive them based on their great wins. The Flyers lost to Buffalo by 29, Miami (OH) by 5, and were largely uncompetitive against Murray State. But wins against Alabama, Seton Hall, Ole Miss, Saint Louis, Temple, and Xavier make it easier to forgive those losses. The Flyers are the toughest team to figure out in my field at this point. Dayton has lost its last two games to Saint Joseph’s and Rhode Island (No. 263 in the RPI!) and that’s why I have them out, but a second look at their resume and a good debate by my buddy Blake Hofstad might have changed my mind. I guess you’ll have to wait for the next update to see if this mindset sticks.

2) Florida is the team moving up my bracket the fastest. After losses to Rutgers and Tennessee, I had the Gators on the 6 seed line. Now, Florida is a 3 and rising. If the Gators can knock off Kentucky in one of the rivals’ two remaining meetings, Florida has a good chance of matching last season’s No. 2 seed.

3) Call North Carolina and Duke co-No. 1 seeds if you want. Seriously, North Carolina fans. Don’t email me with hatred. If you guys take care of business against the Blue Devils, you’ll be a one seed. Until then, there’s no reason to even debate it. Now, if the two teams split, email me all you want. That goes for both fanbases.

4) The Big 12 doesn’t have a No. 1 seed, but it may have more national title contenders than any other conference. Kansas, Baylor, and Missouri all have a shot at a No. 1 seed before Selection Sunday too.

5) I want to make sure to note this, because I think I am going to get a lot of flak for a couple of my “lock” picks. Mississippi State is a good example. Locks are teams that I believe will be in the dance if they continue to win at their current pace. In other words, I don’t think 20 teams are going to outplay Mississippi State the rest of the way and I don’t think the Bulldogs are going to play themselves out of the Big Dance. Even if you think the Bulldogs are a 8 seed right now, that still leaves at least 18 teams behind them! I know there’s a lot of basketball to be played, but I’ll keep making bold picks like the Bulldogs. That’s what I’m here for.